Strategic Responses and Diplomatic Navigations: Addressing the Bangladesh-Myanmar Border Tensions

Sarder A. Haider

In a recent development that underscores the escalating tensions in the region, over 66 soldiers from Myanmar’s Border Guard Police (BGP) sought asylum in Bangladesh, fleeing their positions amidst intense firefights between government forces and insurgent groups within Myanmar. These skirmishes, occurring perilously close to the Bangladesh border, have heightened local apprehensions as reports emerge of bullets traversing the border, compelling medics to attend to injuries. In response, the Bangladesh Border Guard (BGB) has responsibly secured the weaponry and ammunition relinquished by these soldiers.

The backdrop to this crisis is Myanmar’s ongoing turmoil since the military coup in February 2021, which deposed the democratically elected government led by Aung San Suu Kyi. This pivotal event has exacerbated conflict throughout the nation, intensifying confrontations between the Tatmadaw (Myanmar military) and a mix of ethnic armed factions and newly established militias challenging the junta’s authority. The resultant instability has precipitated widespread internal displacement, humanitarian emergencies, and cross-border repercussions, notably affecting neighboring countries such as Thailand and Bangladesh. These nations are grappling with the influx of refugees seeking escape from the unrest.

Amidst this volatile context, particularly with the incursion of Myanmar’s military personnel into Bangladesh and the protracted crisis involving Rohingya refugees, it is imperative for Bangladesh to meticulously address these challenges. The following narrative delves into an analysis and potential strategies that Bangladesh could employ to navigate the intricacies of Myanmar’s internal conflict and its ramifications on regional stability.

Bangladesh’s strategic approach to the escalating tensions with Myanmar emphasizes the importance of sustained diplomatic engagement. Through dialogue facilitated by international platforms such as the United Nations, ASEAN, and SAARC, Bangladesh aims to press Myanmar towards a peaceful conflict resolution and advocate for the safe and dignified return of Rohingya Forcibly Displaced Myanmar Nationals (FDMN). Additionally, diplomatic efforts are crucial in addressing and mitigating instances of Myanmar’s military incursions into Bangladesh territory, a measure aimed at preventing future breaches and maintaining regional stability.

In parallel to diplomatic endeavors, enhancing border security stands as a pivotal measure for Bangladesh to protect its sovereignty and ensure the safety of its citizens. This strategy involves bolstering the presence of border guards, employing advanced surveillance technologies like drones, and meticulously documenting any cross-border aggression to internationalize the issue. Such measures are not only preventive but also serve to highlight Myanmar’s actions on the international stage, thereby garnering global attention and support for Bangladesh’s stance.

Moreover, Bangladesh remains committed to providing humanitarian assistance to FDMNs, underscored by efforts to foster international collaboration and secure funding. This is complemented by initiatives aimed at strengthening economic and security cooperation with neighboring countries and regional powers, thus enhancing Bangladesh’s strategic position. Domestically, the focus on building community resilience, through supporting local economies and enhancing social cohesion, forms the bedrock of Bangladesh’s internal safeguarding measures. Coupled with ongoing advocacy and awareness campaigns, Bangladesh seeks to keep the international community engaged and informed, ensuring a concerted effort towards a peaceful resolution of the crisis. This multi-faceted approach underscores Bangladesh’s commitment to a flexible and adaptive strategy, prioritizing national security and the well-being of refugees while striving for regional peace and stability in collaboration with the international community.

Efficacy of Bilateral Discussions with Myanmar’s Current Unstable Government

Engaging with Myanmar’s current military-led government presents significant challenges, given its instability and the international condemnation it faces due to human rights abuses and the undermining of democratic governance. While direct dialogue may seem fruitless in achieving immediate, substantial outcomes, maintaining diplomatic channels open is crucial for several reasons:

• Dialogue maintains a communication channel that can be vital for de-escalating immediate border tensions and preventing misunderstandings that could lead to direct conflict.
• International pressure and mediation could be facilitated through diplomatic engagements, where Bangladesh can leverage global partners to influence Myanmar’s military regime towards more constructive behavior, including the safe repatriation of refugees.

Implications of Granting Asylum to Fleeing Myanmar Troops in Bangladesh

This is a complex decision that involves both humanitarian considerations and security concerns. Here are a few factors to consider:

• Humanitarian Grounds

From a humanitarian perspective, providing refuge to individuals fleeing violence aligns with international norms and Bangladesh’s previous actions, such as sheltering Rohingya FDMNs. However, these are not civilians but armed personnel, which complicates the matter.

• Security Concerns

Allowing armed foreign soldiers to enter poses potential security risks, including the possibility of armed conflict spilling over into Bangladesh territory. It’s crucial to carefully assess the intentions of these troops and the potential implications of their presence on Bangladesh’s soil.

• Legal and International Norms

Bangladesh should consider international laws and norms regarding refugees and asylum seekers. While fleeing troops do not fit the typical profile of refugees, their treatment would still fall under scrutiny by international human rights organizations.

• Potential Preconditions and Monitoring

If Bangladesh decides to allow these troops refuge, it could be under strict preconditions, such as disarmament and internment in designated areas, where their activities can be monitored to ensure they do not pose a security risk.

Ultimately, Bangladesh’s decision should balance humanitarian concerns with national security interests, possibly requiring a nuanced approach that involves international agencies to ensure that any actions taken are within international legal frameworks and supported by the global community.

Impacts of Myanmar’s Conflict on Bangladesh: Analyzing the Spillover Effects

The prevailing tension in Myanmar, particularly in the Rakhine (Arakan) State, and the presence of fleeing troops alongside the existing Rohingya FDMN crisis, pose several challenges for Bangladesh. Here are some of the key challenges:

Security Challenges

• Increased Militarization and Conflict Spillover: The presence of fleeing Myanmar troops and ongoing clashes near the Bangladesh border may lead to increased militarization of the border. There’s a risk of conflict spillover, which could destabilize the border regions of Bangladesh.
• Potential Infiltration by Armed Groups: The situation may be exploited by armed groups, posing as refugees to enter Bangladesh, which could lead to security incidents or attempts to use Bangladesh as a base for operations against the Myanmar government.

Humanitarian Challenges

• Pressure on Resources: Hosting over a million Rohingya FDMNs has already put immense pressure on Bangladesh’s resources. The arrival of more individuals, even if they are fleeing troops, compounds this pressure, stretching the capacities of camps and services.
• Health and Environmental Impact: The dense population in refugee camps has significant health and environmental impacts, including the spread of communicable diseases and degradation of the local environment. Additional influxes can exacerbate these issues.

Diplomatic Challenges

• Balancing International Relations: Bangladesh needs to navigate its response to the fleeing troops and ongoing tensions carefully to avoid straining diplomatic relations with Myanmar and other countries. It must balance its humanitarian stance with the need to maintain security and regional stability.
• International Support and Funding: Sustaining the Rohingya and any additional populations fleeing Myanmar requires substantial international support. Mobilizing this support amidst global humanitarian crises can be challenging, especially as donor fatigue sets in.

Socio-economic Challenges

• Impact on Local Communities: The presence of large refugee populations affects local communities, potentially leading to competition for jobs, resources, and services. This can strain social cohesion and lead to tensions between host and refugee populations.
• Long-term Integration and Repatriation Issues: With no immediate solution for the safe repatriation of the Rohingya to Myanmar, Bangladesh faces the challenge of dealing with long-term displacement. The addition of fleeing troops complicates this further, adding layers to the diplomatic and security considerations for repatriation or integration.

Legal and Ethical Challenges

• International Legal Obligations: Bangladesh should navigate complex international legal and ethical obligations regarding the treatment of refugees and asylum seekers, including non-refoulement, while also considering the unique status of fleeing troops.
• Human Rights Concerns: Ensuring the rights and dignities of all individuals, whether they are Rohingya refugees or fleeing troops, amidst such complex dynamics, is a significant challenge.

Addressing these challenges requires a multifaceted approach, involving national strategies and international collaboration, to ensure security, provide humanitarian assistance, and seek durable solutions for displaced populations. The situation calls for balancing immediate security concerns with long-term humanitarian and development goals, requiring careful planning and international support.

Option of Seeking Support from China: Implications for Bangladesh

China has significant leverage in Myanmar due to its longstanding political, economic, and military relationships. Here’s an analysis considering these factors:

China’s Position and Influence

• Economic Investments: China is one of Myanmar’s largest foreign investors and trading partners, involved in numerous infrastructure projects, including those under the Belt and Road Initiative. These investments give China considerable economic influence.
• Military Ties: China has historically had close ties with the Myanmar military, providing them with arms, support, and training. This relationship offers China a degree of influence over the military junta.
• Diplomatic Support: China has shielded Myanmar from international criticism and sanctions, especially regarding human rights abuses, by using its veto power in the United Nations Security Council or by blocking resolutions.

Capacity to Stabilize the Situation

• Mediation Role: China has the unique position of being able to engage with both the military government and various ethnic armed groups in Myanmar due to its historical ties and strategic interests. This positions China as a potential mediator that could facilitate dialogue towards de-escalation.
• Strategic Interests: Stability in Myanmar is in China’s interest for securing its investments and ensuring the smooth implementation of its projects. Moreover, stability along its southern border is crucial for China’s regional security calculus.

Challenges and Considerations

• Complex Internal Dynamics: While China has leverage in Myanmar, the internal dynamics are complex, with deep-rooted ethnic conflicts and widespread opposition to military rule. China’s influence has limits, and stabilizing the situation would require navigating a myriad of local and national interests.
• Regional and International Implications: Any move by China to stabilize the situation would be closely watched by regional players and the international community. China’s actions would be balanced against its broader regional strategy and relations, especially with ASEAN countries and its strategic rivalry with the United States and India.

While China indeed has the capacity to influence the situation in Myanmar significantly, whether it will take concrete steps to stabilize it remains a matter of strategic choice, balancing its interests and the potential risks. China’s involvement could lead to stabilization efforts, but these efforts would likely prioritize China’s strategic interests and could be viewed with suspicion by various stakeholders inside and outside Myanmar. It’s crucial to monitor how China’s role evolves in this context, as it could have significant implications for the peace and security of the region, including the impact on Bangladesh.

Potential Direct and Indirect Involvement by the United States

The involvement of the United States, particularly through organizations like the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), introduces a different dimension to the efforts to stabilize the situation in Myanmar. The NED, which aims to support freedom and democracy worldwide by funding non-governmental organizations that promote democratic goals, could play a role in Myanmar’s complex political landscape. Here’s an analysis of the potential impact:

Potential Impact of NED Involvement

• Support for Civil Society: The NED could enhance the capacity of civil society organizations in Myanmar that are working towards peace, democracy, and human rights. By empowering these organizations, there’s potential to strengthen grassroots movements advocating for change and reconciliation.
• Promotion of Democratic Institutions: Efforts to support the development of democratic institutions and processes in Myanmar could contribute to a long-term solution for stability. This includes support for free media, fair elections, and rule of law initiatives.

Challenges and Limitations

• Perception of Foreign Interference: Involvement by the United States, even indirectly through the NED, may be perceived by some within Myanmar and in the region as foreign interference. This perception could undermine the legitimacy of the groups receiving support and potentially exacerbate tensions.
• Geopolitical Tensions: Increased U.S. involvement, particularly in a context where China has significant interests, might escalate geopolitical tensions. It could be seen as part of the broader strategic competition between the U.S. and China, complicating the situation further.
• Complex Internal Dynamics: Myanmar’s challenges are deeply rooted in ethnic conflicts, historical grievances, and the struggle for democracy. External support, while beneficial, may not be sufficient on its own to resolve these complex issues without a genuine commitment to peace and reconciliation from all Myanmar’s stakeholders.

The Role of Diplomatic Engagement

• Comprehensive Approach: For the United States and organizations like the NED to effectively contribute to stabilizing Myanmar, their efforts should be part of a broader diplomatic engagement strategy. This includes working with regional actors, especially ASEAN, to ensure a coordinated approach that respects Myanmar’s sovereignty while promoting human rights and democracy.
• Constructive Engagement: U.S. efforts should aim to be constructive, seeking to engage with all stakeholders, including the military, democratic forces, and ethnic armed groups, to find a peaceful resolution to the crisis.

While the NED and broader U.S. involvement could contribute to efforts aimed at stabilizing Myanmar, it’s essential to approach this with a nuanced understanding of the local context and international dynamics. Success would likely depend on a multifaceted strategy that combines support for democracy and civil society with diplomatic efforts to engage all relevant stakeholders in a dialogue for peace.

Given the complexity of Myanmar’s situation, the role of international actors like the United States and organizations like the NED should be carefully considered as part of a larger, coordinated international response aimed at achieving a sustainable peace.

Short-Term Strategies for Bangladesh’s Response

The long-term and indirect approaches which have been discuss so far are indeed crucial for addressing the root causes of the situation and ensuring sustainable peace and security. However, immediate and direct preparations are also essential to address potential short-term challenges and safeguard national security.

Enhanced Border Security

• Strengthening Surveillance: Increasing surveillance capabilities along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border using advanced technology, such as drones and sensors, can help monitor cross-border movements and prevent unauthorized entries.
• Increased Patrols: Deploying additional troops for patrolling the border areas can act as a deterrent to unauthorized crossings and ensure quick response to any incidents.

Intelligence Sharing and Coordination

• Regional Cooperation: Bangladesh could enhance intelligence sharing and coordination with neighboring countries and international partners to better understand and anticipate potential security threats emanating from Myanmar.
• Internal Coordination: Ensuring strong coordination among different branches of the security forces and civilian authorities is vital for a unified and effective response to any situation.

Humanitarian Assistance Preparedness

• Rapid Response Teams: Establishing rapid response teams within the security forces to provide humanitarian assistance in case of an influx of refugees or displaced persons can help manage any immediate humanitarian needs while ensuring security.
• Collaboration with NGOs and International Agencies: Working closely with non-governmental organizations and international agencies can enhance the effectiveness of humanitarian response and relief operations.

Training and Capacity Building

• Conflict Management Training: Providing specialized training to the security forces in conflict management, negotiation, and peacekeeping can prepare them for potential engagement in non-traditional security roles.
• Human Rights and International Law: Emphasizing training on human rights and international humanitarian law ensures that the armed forces’ operations respect international norms and standards.

Diplomatic Support

• Backing Diplomatic Efforts: The security forces’ preparations and actions should support Bangladesh’s diplomatic efforts to resolve the situation peacefully. A strong but restrained posture can lend weight to diplomatic negotiations.

Contingency Planning

• Scenario Planning: Developing detailed contingency plans for various scenarios, including potential escalations along the border, can help the security forces respond effectively and swiftly to any situation.
• Community Engagement: Engaging with communities along the border to develop early warning systems and enhance their resilience against potential spillover effects of conflict.

By taking these preparations, the Bangladesh can strengthen their readiness to address immediate challenges while supporting broader efforts to manage the implications of Myanmar’s instability. It’s a balanced approach that recognizes the importance of both immediate security needs and long-term stability and peace.

Bangladesh currently positioned in a complex security environment, necessitating a comprehensive training strategy to address both traditional and non-traditional threats, particularly given the ongoing tensions in Myanmar. This strategy should focus on developing a broad spectrum of capabilities, including hybrid warfare and counterinsurgency operations, to counteract non-state actors and insurgent groups. Additionally, there’s a critical need for specialized training in humanitarian assistance and disaster response (HADR), emphasizing rapid deployment, logistics, medical aid, and effective civil-military coordination with civilian agencies, NGOs, and international bodies.

Furthermore, enhancing skills in peacekeeping, stability operations, cybersecurity, information warfare, and the ethical and legal aspects of military operations is essential. Leveraging Bangladesh’s experience in international peacekeeping can prepare forces for roles in maintaining peace and stability, while training in cybersecurity and information operations is vital for protecting against cyber threats and managing narratives in conflict situations. Incorporating human rights and international humanitarian law into training programs will ensure that the security forces’ actions are in line with international standards, thus reinforcing Bangladesh’s commitment to upholding the highest ethical conduct and contributing to global peace, stability, and humanitarian efforts. Tailoring these training initiatives to the nuanced demands of the current regional security landscape will significantly enhance operational effectiveness and readiness.