Capitalizing on the “Rohingya Crisis” by Transnational Militants- Assessing the Security Threat to South Asia and Beyond

Sarder Ali Haider

 “Al-Qaeda Central (AQC) urged Muslims around the world ….. to support their Rohingya brethren in Myanmar financially, militarily, and physically,” ^[1] Site Intelligence Group.

“So spare no effort in waging jihad against them and repulsing their attacks, and beware of letting down our brothers in Burma (Myanmar),” –Al Qaeda’s al-Malahem media foundation, Khaled Batarfi.^[2]

Abstract

The gradually developing crisis of the Rohingya in last seven decades has the potential to become a greater security threat to South Asia and beyond.^[3]Recent global terrorist groups like Al-Qaeda’s call to support their cause have created a new concern. The Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) has strongly denied connections with any of the global or regional terrorist groups,^[4]but the several events since World War II, various activities of Rohingya community and brutal actions of the government security forces to counter those, might compel them to be adamant to stand for their cause. The actions of Myanmar’s security forces in reply to miscreant activities of ARSA in August 2017 were so brutal that global important personalities, especially from the UN termed it to be an effort of ethnic cleansing.^[5]Bangladesh as a peace-loving nation provided shelter for 688,000 people^[6] in addition to the previously arrived 400,000 Myanmar nationals (Rohingyas) on humanitarian grounds. ^[7] The terrorist group’s call to the less educated and traumatized Rohingya people might influence them to get involved into various destructive activities including unlawful criminal affairs. Global terrorist group Al-Qaeda has already expressed the concern on this issue. Direct participation or creating influence by providing necessary support of global or regional terrorist groups might cause a serious security threat for South Asia and beyond. Appropriate approach at strategic level with focused healthy management of Rohingya crisis might contribute to avoid this potential security threat.

Introduction

The “Rohingya Crisis” has become a new point of concern on many dimensions. Besides enormous catastrophe due to large exodus of Rohingya community in Bangladesh, there is an apprehension of security threat in the South Asian region,^[8] which ultimately might expand to the surrounding countries, if the matter is not well-addressed.^[9]The ‘Rohingya Crisis’ is not a matter of sudden movement of Government security forces against one Muslim community, rather the development of it is a long unresolved issue of ‘right of ethnic identity’ and ‘nationality’.^[10] Recent actions by the Myanmar security forces in response to a miscreant attack on some of the security posts cannot be justified.^[11] The matter has been termed by the UN as a “brutal security operation” that was “clearly disproportionate” to insurgent attacks. The UN also considered this situation as a textbook example of ethnic cleansing.^[12]

Already 688,000 Rohingya people have been compelled to flee away from Myanmar to Bangladesh. Bangladesh has provided shelter and other necessary support to this huge population on humanitarian grounds. The international communities including the UN and except few countries almost all the countries including the U.S. have extended their support to the Rohingya community, besides enormous direct support of Bangladesh Government. The people of the Rohingya community who took shelter in Bangladesh, 65% of them are women and girls.^[13] A good percentage of males did not come or could not come due to unbearable torture they might had to come across.

The Rohingya based group, Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) whom the Myanmar Government has declared as a terrorist organization,^[14] might get in touch of some of the Rohingya male population.^[15]Various statements of the leaders of ARSA in social media indicate their ambition to do good for the Rohingya community. ARSA leader Mr. Ata Ullah said, “Our legitimate self-defence is a necessary struggle justified by the needs of human survival”.^[16] He also added, “ARSA has been in Arakan for three years and has not brought any harm or destruction to the life and properties of the Rakhine people and Rohingya”.^[17]  Though ARSA has denied their connection with any of the global terrorist organizations, ‘Al-Qaeda’ has expressed their support for the people of Rohingya. Before ARSA, there were many others organizations based on Rohingya community in history. The movement of these organizations started in the 1940’s, after world war-II and with the progress of time these organizations continued their movement sometimes in the form of procession or sometimes in the form of destructive activities.^[18] Due to various internal problems and lack of good leadership, most of these parties were abolished and some of those continued with a new shape and name. That means the Rohingya community has a history of countering the situation.

Regional and global terrorist organizations might take advantage of this distressed community to motivate them to work for their cause. There are good chances of this community who do not have many alternatives and therefore might join them in search of immediate security. Some senior leaders of Al-Qaeda has already expressed their concern to provide support for the cause of Rohingyas. Though the Rohingya based organization, ARSA has denied any kind of connection with global or regional terrorist groups but there are circumstantial evidences which indicates their mutual connection. Moreover Al-Qaeda or any other regional terrorist groups might take entry without involving ARSA or at some point of time ARSA also might be compelled to take support of the global or regional terrorist groups.

The western Myanmar region is also known to be a golden passage for drug traffickers.^[19] In many of the cases the Rohingya populations were actively involved in this kind of trafficking and transportations of drugs. The present situation of the Rohingya community might influence them more to take part in these kinds of crimes, which might create a new avenue for transnational militants.

This research paper will assess the vulnerabilities of South Asian security as a result of capitalizing by global militants on the recent ethnic cleansing campaign of Myanmar and explore the significance of the Rohingya crisis for global terrorist networks. While doing that this paper will also assess the possibilities of coalition between the international and native Rohingya militant outfits, evaluate the possibilities of religion based extremists groups’ efforts to expand their hold in South Asia and beyond, study the background and capabilities of Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) and examine the chances of transnational organized crimes by the Rohingya communities in Bangladesh. This research paper will also evaluate the necessity of integrated counter measures if the global militants get involved in this sector.

Methodology

This research paper has been prepared based on informal interviews with 45 Rohingya people, a good number of officers who are operating in that area in different capacities like Commanding Officer, Border Guard Bangladesh, intelligence operatives of different agencies, local journalists and different level staffs of various humanitarian organizations. In addition, various information has been collected from the internet, newspapers, books etc.

Background of the Crisis

The crisis started on the denial of ‘right of identity’ and ‘nationality’ of a Muslim community who are known as ‘Rohingya’. According to the Government of Myanmar, Rohingyas are not included within the acknowledged 135 ethnic community as per the Citizenship Law of 1982.^[20] They consider this large community of 1.3 million people as foreigners. Since the independence of Burma (presently Myanmar) the Muslim communities lived in Arakan, especially Rohingyas were treated differently as they supported and worked for the British during World War II. Rohingyas supported the British with a hope of a separate land for the Muslims; even they wanted to be annexed with then East Pakistan (presently Bangladesh) during the process of discussion before the British left the Indian sub-continent.^[21]

Though the ‘right of identity’ and ‘nationality’ has been ignored by the Citizenship Law of Myanmar, many historical references prove that Rohingyas were not the out-siders to Burma. It’s true that when Burma was within the British colony in the nineteenth century, they brought many people from India and Bangladesh territory, because at that time, the whole Indian sub-continent was under British rule. Beside those new-comers, there are evidences of good number of Muslim presence in Burma since the seventh century. They had peaceful co-existence with other Hindus and Buddhists. The British used to call this community as ‘Rohang’ and local Muslims used to identify themselves as ‘Rovingaw’ or ‘Rooinga’. There are references in the Burmese language studies being used since 1799 that the inhabitants of Arakan (present Rakhine) were termed as ‘Yakain’ and ‘Rooinga’. Matter was further echoed in the Aung San-Attlee Agreement,^[22] in 1947 that the citizenship rights of Burma would consider those people who was born in Burma and stayed there for eight years within the last ten years.^[23] It justifies the Rohingya’s right of demand of Burmese identity and nationality.

According to British prepared census, the population state of Rakhine (then Arakan) was as follows.

Races	Year 1871	Year 1901	Year 1911
Muslims	58,255	154,887	178,647
Burmese	4,632	5,751	92,185
Arakanese	171,612	230,649	209,432
Shan	334	80	59
Hill Tribes	38,577	35,489	34,020
Others	606	1,355	1,146

Figure 1: Census of the population state of Arakan.^[24]

The long co-existence of Muslims with the Arakanese started deteriorating with the introduction of a Muslim based political party ‘Jami-a-tul Ulema-e Islam’ prior to World War II. This group supported the British during the war as they used to maintain regular connections with them. On the other hand, the Buddhist dominated Burmese supported the Japanese during the war. Burmese leader Major General Aung San formed ‘Burma Independence Party’ in 1940 before the Japanese entry to World War II. Though Aung Sun had a leading role during all the movement of the independence of Burma, he was assassinated on 19 July 1947 by a group of armed paramilitaries of former Prime Minister British Burma, U Saw.^[25] In the meantime, in 1942 there were incidents of communal violence between the Muslim based political party ‘Jami-a-tul Ulema-e Islam’ and the Buddhist dominated Arakanese. It is reported that during the communal violence Rohingya Muslims killed 20,000 Buddhists in Buthidaung and Maungdaw townships and Arakanese Buddhists killed 5,000 Muslims in Minbya and Mrauk-U Townships.^[26]

During World War II the Rohingyas supported the British on their promise of getting a separate land. The Muslims were armed by the British so that they can create obstruction of Japanese invasion. After the independence of Burma many important positions within the country were occupied by the Buddhists. That time Arakanese Buddhists were much ahead in their educational background in comparison to the Muslims, moreover Muslims’ support towards the British during World War II might also be a consideration. Rohingyas and the then Muslim leaders foreseeing their detrimental future continued their movement against the Burmese Government in different forms. In 1946, the Muslim leaders of Arakan met with the leader of Pakistan, Mr. Muhammad Ali Jinnah and requested Arakan to be annexed with East Pakistan, which was denied. At the same time Jami-a-tul Ulema-e Islam also discussed with the Muslim League leaders at Karachi with a similar request of annexation of Arakan with Pakistan which went in vain. Their effort of same demand to the Burmese parliament was not also accepted. Failing of the political approach to their demands, local Mujahedeen members led by Mr. Mir Qasem started forceful movement which compelled a good number of Rakhine Buddhists to flee to East Pakistan.^[27]

With the declaration of martial law in 1948, Burmese security forces took control over the region by June 1949; the Mujahedeen had to take shelter in the jungles near the East Pakistan border areas. In the early 1950’s both Burma and Pakistan reached to a understanding of supporting each other on border security issues which ensured arrest of Mr. Mir Qasem and surrender of many of his activists. By 1961 almost all the Mujahedeen had to surrender to the Burmese Government but the Muslim Rohingyas who migrated from the Indian subcontinent during the British period or after the independence of Burma were not accepted by the Burmese. It was challenging for the Burmese Government to identify the migrated people of Indian subcontinent because the Muslims staying in Arakan were from different background, some of them really migrated from Indian subcontinent in the mid of nineteenth century,  some were the generations who all started living there since thirteenth century or before, some were the generations of Muslim mercenaries in Ramree Island known as ‘Kaman’; and the Muslims from the Myedu area of Central Burma who all are living there since the invasion of  Burma to Arakan in 1784.^[28]

The Burmese government conducted ‘Operation King Dragon’ in 1978 to identify the illegal migrants as per their understanding.^[29] It caused the forceful mass exodus of 252,000 people to Bangladesh, who returned back again with the intervention of the UNHCR in 1979.^[30] In 1991-92 a similar effort of Myanmar caused 270,000 exodus who also returned back again as result of a treaty between Bangladesh and Myanmar Government.^[31] But then onwards Rohingya people have started taking shelter in Bangladesh avoiding the eyes of Border Guard Bangladesh in limited scale. But in 2012, on the issue of rape of a Buddhist woman by some Rohingya people, security forces became very active which caused a good number of Rohingyas to flee away to Bangladesh.^[32]

The security forces offensive attitude towards the Rohingyas in 2016 caused the rise of Rohingya exodus.^[33]But in August 2017, the mass scale of Rohingya exodus due to unbearable torture of Myanmar security forces crossed all previous records. This time the torture started in response to a miscreant attack on some of the security forces posts, which caused the death of 12 security forces personnel.^[34]The general Rohingya people were killed by random gunfire or shooting indiscriminately at houses and individuals. This time during mass torture and killing, a good number of Rakhine Buddhists also participated.^[35]There are allegations of burnt to death of Rohingya children and elderly people inside their houses. There are cases of disappearances, rape and other forms of sexual violence with the women and girls. It is reported to use of landmines in the border areas by the Myanmar security forces, caused enormous casualties of the fleeing traumatized people crossing the border. The Government of Bangladesh has extended support on humanitarian ground to those Myanmar nationals.^[36]As on January 27, 2018 total 688,000 Rohingya people have arrived in Bangladesh.^[37] Previously there were approximately 400,000 Rohingya people took shelter in different times. The International Organization of Migration (IOM) is taking preparation to support a total 1.2 million Rohingyas considering previously migrated Rohingya populations and expected number of newly birthed children.^[38]Among the people who have crossed the border since 25 August 2017, the majority of them are women and girls (65%), that means 447,200 women and girls. Among those women, 20% of them are either pregnant or breastfeeding. So approximately 26,000 newly arrived pregnant and lactating women have migrated. 450,000 Rohingya children aged 4-18 years old are in need of education. A total of 27 schools and learning centers have been used in Bangladesh while providing temporary shelters for more than 7000 new arrivals. However alternative arrangements are being taken soon. Rohingya people, arriving in Bangladesh, mostly women and children are traumatized, and some have arrived with injuries caused by gunshots, shrapnel, fire and landmines.

The Government of Myanmar is denying the historical fact of ‘Rohingya’ as a community; rather they want to term them as ‘Bengalis’. Recently the Government of Bangladesh has signed an agreement with Myanmar for returning back all Rohingyas to their own land. Bangladesh as a peace loving country honored the request of Myanmar and termed the Rohingya community as “undocumented Myanmar nationals”.^[39]

Rohingya Insurgency in Arakan

At present the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) is operating in the western region of Myanmar. The Myanmar Government has declared this group as terrorist.^[40]There is a long history of Rohingyas getting organized in different names, in different times and protesting against the stand of Myanmar Government’s decision which used to go against the interest of the Rohingya community. The Mujahedeen campaign was started after the independence of Burma to gain autonomy or secede or to be annexed with then East Pakistan as many of them were already armed by the British since World War II. But most of them had to surrender to the Burmese Government by 1961. Mujahedeen leader Zafar Kawal, Abdul Latif and Annul Jauli continued their movement with more than two hundred of their activists in three different groups.^[41]But these groups were not supported locally or by any interested foreign agencies. It compelled them to do all criminal activities for their survival and very slowly had been taking preparation to organize a party.

In 1972, Mujahedeen leader Zafar Kawal organized the Rohingya Liberation Party (RLP) along with the previous activists he had.^[42]Abdul Latif and Muhammad Jafar Habib were other important leaders of this party. By 1974 the number of the activists of the party was increased from 200 to 500. But in mid-1974, the active posture of Burmese security forces compelled Zafar Kawal and many of his activists to take shelter in inaccessible jungles near the bordering areas.^[43]In the same year, Muhammad Jafar Habib organized another party named the Rohingya Patriotic Front (RPF) with around 70 of his activists. Nurul Islam and Muhammad Yunus were the other important leaders of this party. In 1978, ‘Operation King Dragon’, conducted by Burmese Government, forcefully compelled many general Rohingyas to cross the border of Bangladesh but RPF remained intact up to 1982. Then this party was divided and came up with a new name the Rohingya Solidarity Organization (RSO) under the leadership of Muhammad Yunus.

In 1986 another party was organized by Nurul Islam, named the Arakan Rohingya Islamic Front (ARIF). But among those two parties, RSO was very active both militarily and keeping coordination with similar minded parties of Pakistan, India and Malaysia.^[44]In April 1994, RSO planted bombs created damage of a few buildings at Maungdaw town, Arakan. In 1998, ARIF and RSO were merged and formed a new party named the Arakan Rohingya National Organization (ARNO).This party used to maintain a separate armed wing, named The Rohingya National Army (RNA).

In 2012, a new party, Harakah al-Yaqin came up under the leadership of Ata-Ullah Abu Ammar Jununi, mostly known as Ata Ullah to protest Myanmar security forces torture basing on a rape of a Buddhist women by some Rohingya people. There were communal clashes between Rohingyas and Rakhine Buddhists on the follow up of that rape incident. Later on, Harakah al-Yaqin was renamed in English, Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA).^[45]But there is no information about the movement of ARNO or RNA now a days. It might so happen that these two parties are merged with ARSA. The meaning of ARSA’s previous name ‘Harakah-al-Yaqin” is faith movement. This group always claims their non-violent approach to work for the interest of Rohingya community. There are information about the location of the headquarters of Harakah-al-Yaqin is in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, being supervised by twenty senior leaders of Rohingya community background. The chief of ARSA, Mr. Ata Ullah (alias Ameer Abu Amar or Abu Amar Jununi or Myanmar Government identifies him as Hafiz Tohar) is basically from northern Rakhine. His father migrated to Karachi, Pakistan where he was born. Later on, his family was shifted to Mecca, Saudi Arabia where Mr. Ata Ullah grew up and studied in Islamic education (madrasa). The Myanmar Government spells “Hafiz Tohar” as “Havistoohar”.

The time RSO was active in the 1990’s, there were information about various automatic weapons were in their possession. But in the case of ARSA, they are found using bladed weapons and improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in most of the incidents. From 2016 to January 2018, there were number of incidents that project the strength of ARSA.^[46] In October 2016 at least 40 people were killed due to clashes between Myanmar security forces and ARSA at the northern part of Rakhine. This time ARSA could take away a good number of weapons and ammunition from the border posts. In response the security forces of Myanmar tortured the general Rohingya people in the plea of search for the militants.^[47] On May 4, 2017, an accidental detonation of an IED caused the death of seven ARSA activists including one instructor at Kyaung Taung village tract (north Buthidaung) during their training on IEDs. There are rumor about the instructor to be from Pakistan.^[48] On May 7, 2017, Myanmar security forces conducted investigation of the incident area of 04 May 2017 and found proof of the IED training materials. They also found the sign of five dead bodies including two foreigners. In response, the security forces conducted massive brutal operation in nearby villages which forced the general Rohingya people to leave their houses and take shelter in Bangladesh.^[49] On June 20, 2017 Myanmar security forces could kill three ARSA activists in Sein Hnyin Pyar village (South Buthidaung). The security forces claimed that incident has occurred while clearing a training camp of ARSA.^[50] On June 24, 2017, ARSA killed two Rakhine Buddhists and injured of one, in Kyun Pauk Pyu Su village (north Maungdaw) as they had been searching for planted bombs. On being informed, Myanmar security forces reached to the spot but found no proof of bombs. Before this incident ARSA never attacked on civilian Buddhists. It might so happen that Rakhine Buddhists had false allegations against ARSA or they (ARSA) might have removed their bomb materials before the arrival of security forces personnel.^[51] On August 01, 2017, in Pan Taw Pyin village tract (Maungdaw) a house which Myanmar security forces claim it to be ARSA safe house, an IED was accidentally exploded and later on Myanmar security forces recovered IED preparing materials.^[52] On August, 2017, Myanmar security forces made responsible ARSA for the killing of eight members of the Mro ethnic group at Maungdaw Township which did not have any reliable proof.^[53]On August 16, 2017, ARSA uploaded a video, asking Myanmar military to demilitarize northern Rakhine State and stop mistreatments against Rohingya. ARSA leader Mr. Ata Ullah was seen in that video. He conveyed that his group has no connection with any of the global or regional terrorist groups and never want to target Rakhine civilians^[54]. On 25 August 2017, ARSA attack on some police posts and an army base in Rakhine state caused the death of 12 security personnel and 59 Rohingyas. Myanmar security forces responded very tough on this incident. It caused already 688,000 Rohingya exodus in Bangladesh.^[55]

On September 09, 2017 ARSA declared a unilateral ceasefire for one-month to allow aid groups and humanitarian workers safe access into northern Rakhine State which was denied by Myanmar Government addressing ARSA to be a terrorist organization.^[56] Since August 28, 2017 no video message has been released by Mr. Ata Ullah. On October 07, 2017 one Twitter message has been circulated announcing the end of its unilateral ceasefire.^[57]But there is no new attack from ARSA since then till last January 2018. It is reported that one tribal man has been injured^[58]and one woman has been killed^[59] in two separate incidents due to IED blast at Mizoram-Myanmar border but information about the responsible organization is still unclear.

Terrorism Indicators and Analysis on the Possibilities of its Rise

Al-Qaeda has announced to extend their support for the interest of Rohingyas. They asked the “mujahedeen” (holy warriors) to take up arms to defend this ethnic minority. Al-Qaeda also has said, “The savage treatment meted out to our Muslim brothers in Arakan by the government of Myanmar under the guise of ‘fighting rebels’, shall not pass without punishment and the government of Myanmar shall be made to taste what our Muslim brothers have tasted in Arakan”.^[60] Though there are calls and message from Al-Qaeda to support the cause of Rohingyas in Myanmar but no strong full proof evidence of connection between ARSA and other regional terrorist organizations have been identified except some circumstantial evidences as discussed below:

Vulnerabilities of the Rohingya Population Total 450,000 Rohingya children aged 4 to 18 are away from education and might become vulnerable to extremist messages in the long run.^[61]Most of them are distressed and experienced to see the brutality in front of their eyes. Terrorist group leaders or other interested parties might try to motivate and utilize them to materialize their evil desire. Rohingya communities were away from the basic rights as a national for the last few decades.^[62] The poverty rate at Rakhine state is 78 percent where Buddhists and Muslims had to live with poverty, poor infrastructure, and a lack of employment opportunities. Besides the non-cooperative attitude of Rakhine Buddhists, the existence of Rohingyas was ignored as per Myanmar Citizenship Law-1982. This kind of situation might be enough to create grievances due to injustice and discriminations. Poverty, poor education and lack of employment opportunities could be utilized as effective tools to motivate people to work for the cause of terrorist groups.^[63]

Out of recent migrated Rohingya populations, 65% of them are women and girls, most of them had to undergo with serious traumatic experiences. That means, considering 52% female and 48% male,^[64] at least 12 to 13% of male population could not or did not migrate. Their fate could be either dead or fled away to some unknown places. There are evidences that ARSA activists are allowing only the women to cross the border.^[65] It is most likely that the suitable Rohingya men were kept segregated for the exploitation by the activists of ARSA.

Connection with International Terrorist Organizations In the recent few years the Rohingya issues are being picked up by various terrorist groups in the form of threat in the media. In 2012, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) threatened to attack Myanmar for their crimes against the Rohingya Muslims. At the same time that group claimed itself to be the defender of Muslim men and women in Myanmar, saying “we will take revenge of your blood”.^[66] In 2013, Indonesian front ranking Islamic leader Abu Bakar Bashir warned the Government of Myanmar and threatened to launch jihad (holy war) in the protest of atrocities against the Rohingya Muslims.^[67] In 2015 chief of Lashkar-e-Taiba, Pakistan Mr. Hafiz Muhammad Saeed called for revenge against the atrocities on Rohingya Muslims.  In 2014, ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi asked to support the Muslim communities where they are being suppressed. While saying so, he expressed about the Rohingya Muslims of Myanmar.^[68]

In 2015, there was information that Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) had been radicalizing the Rohingya Muslims to exploit them for creating unrest in Myanmar-Bangladesh border areas. It was also reported that many Rohingyas were taken to Pakistan to train them on various aspect.^[69] In 2015, The Pakistani Taliban assured the resources and training to the Rohingya Muslims and asked them to fight back, by saying, “take up the sword” Ehsanullah Ehsan, spokesman for the hardline Jamaat-ul-Ahrar faction of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) movement confirmed necessary support for the Rohingya Muslims and urged the country’s youth to “kill in the path of God”.^[70]

In 2015, ISIS targeted many Rohingya Muslims who had been fleeing from Myanmar due to the torture of security forces.^[71] The created connection with ISIS by the Rohingya Muslims in 2015 is expected to be continued now as well. Considering that aspect ISIS might become a supporting organization for the Rohingya Muslims at any time.

ARSA might have links with some regional terrorist groups like Jamaat-Ud Daawah, Laskhar-e-Taiba or Jaish-e-Mohammed.^[72] The leader of ARSA, Mr. Ata-Ullah was born in around 1960s in Karachi and since his early life he stayed in Saudi Arabia for Islamic education and initial professional aspect.^[73] Regional terrorist groups might have picked up Mr. Ata-Ullah considering his Rohingya based family origination. On 27 October 2017 one of the influential Al-Qaeda leaders of Indian Subcontinent, Abu Syed al-Ansari repeated the calls for a jihad against Myanmar in support of the Rohingya.^[74] There are evidences of Al-Qaeda’s point of interest^[75] on Rohingya issue during 1980’s^[76] and 1990s.^[77]The top leadership of Al-Qaeda took initiative to bring RSO within a unified coalition, ‘Rabitatul Mujahedeen’ along with other similar minded groups at that time. Al-Qaeda might be looking for the opportunities to expand space in the South-Asian region. Now after a long days gap they might try to take entry keeping ARSA at front by providing all necessary support or they might do the same in different forms, like taking entry independently including the foreign fighters from Malaysia, Indonesia or Philippines.^[78]

There are some evidences of IS to take interest on Rohingya community. ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi referred Rohingya to be the “oppressed” Muslim populations and expressed his mind about the support of ISIS.^[79] In 2015, ISIS also recruited a good number of Rohingya Muslims.^[80]

Foreign Fighters returning home from Syria had different experiences. Many of them did not find expected level of ideologies and amenities which they learnt before joining there. So as soon as they return back, it is less likely that these people would fight for the cause of Rohingyas. But there were some die-hard fighters who were dedicated to be rewarded in the life of hereafter by their act on so called understanding, they might join to support ARSA with the call of IS or Al-Qaeda. Though it is a very remote possibility but cannot be ignored.^[81]

International Training There is evidence of training of the militants of Myanmar, conducted by Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan.^[82]  The concentration of Mujahedeen in different forms, names and identities are perceived in the Burmese province of Arakan. There is information about some Mujahedeen’s arrival in Pakistan to collect donations and for undergoing some kind of military training. There are also some information about some videotapes marked ‘Myanmar’ in Arabic recorded in Afghanistan by CNN and the same were telecasted in August 2002, but except the link mentioned in the footnote, the correctness of this information could not be verified.^[83]

The activists of Harakah-al-Yaqin or ARSA are found more acquainted with tactics and their operational method is more of asymmetric. They normally use bladed weapons and IEDs. This kind of expertise demands connection with international extremist groups. On 04 May 2017, in Rakhine state the evidences of foreign dead bodies who died due to accidental detonation of IED, indicates ARSA’s connection with other terrorist organizations.

In 2014, some photo based slides were projected in an Al-Qaeda backed website in Indonesia. Though they are claiming it to be Rohingya supported armed group, doing some training but the authenticity of it needs to be double checked.^[84] In 2016, there was information about some foreign students, recently arrested by Malaysian security forces with an allegation of their connection with ISIS. They had been planning to take entry to Myanmar on Rohingya issue.^[85] Though there is no much of updates about the new entry of foreign students to join with ARSA or fight independently but it would not be difficult for any enthusiastic and adamant foreign fighters to take entry in that region if they are well backed up by the local Rohingya Muslims.

There are evidences of terrorist training of the people of Myanmar in Afghanistan. In the majority of cases the instructors were from Pakistan. Normally those type of training used to be conducted for short term, maximum 21 days. Within these days they used to learn weapon handling, execution of hand grenades, basic tactics etc.^[86]  But there is no evidence of conducting such training in regular intervals. Some circumstantial evidence based information was identified in 2001 and 2015 where the connection between ARSA and various militant groups of Pakistan could be assumed.^[87]

Ata Ullah’s Personal Connection Myanmar Government opines that Mr.Ata Ullah has attended six-month Taliban training in Pakistan.^[88]There is some unconfirmed information that he went from Saudi Arabia to Pakistan and from there he went possibly to Libya for further training. His way of talking and expression indicates that he is very fluent in Rohingya and Arabic dialect. There is also information that he received practical training on modern guerrilla warfare in Pakistan and might have ground experience to operate in Afghanistan as well.

There are evidences of Mr. Ata-Ullah’s connection Abdul Qadoos Burmi, the chief of Harkat ul Jihad al Islami -Arakan (HUJI-A) although he (Mr. Ata-Ullah) has denied ARSA’s connection with any regional or global terrorist groups. Mr. Ata Ullah, also known as Hafiz Tohar whose three long duration calls intercepted by different intelligence agencies indicate his preparation process of 25 August 2017’s attack on some of the security posts in Myanmar. It is also reported that Mr. Ata Ullah (Hafiz Tohar) was recruited by Abdul Qadoos Burmi and later on merged his group with ARSA.^[89]

Trend of Terrorist Activities Considering it to be a suitable ground, regional and global terrorist groups might try to take advantage of the situation. Materialization of such circumstance might come up in different forms based on the progress of the events. In the following paragraphs, various indicators of terrorism and analysis of the possibilities of its rise are being discussed:

After analyzing various terrorist attack incidents since 1970 to 2016(see Figure 1 below), it is identified that number of attack incidents are more in comparison to previous years. So terrorist attacks might be increased in near future years in different forms with new dimensions. This data could be an influencing factor of greater level of support, or willingness to use terrorism. This is in turn could mean greater likelihood of accepting support from Al-Qaeda or other terrorist organizations in future.

ARSA might not have much quantity of fire arms at present. They are providing some basic training on bladed weapons and IEDs to their activists. The following statistics indicate that after the birth of ARSA, use of bombs and explosives are comparatively more. This attitude is a sign of terrorism; by creating panic and traumatizing the general people, trying to establish their spirit.

After analyzing the state of casualties due to terrorist attack incidents since 1970 to 2016, it is identified that number of casualties are more in comparison to previous years.

11:41 AM – 3 Sep 2017

Hostile attitude of the Buddhist leaders of Myanmar The Buddhist leaders of Myanmar seem to be very non-cooperative and hostile in their attitude.^[93] They utilized the social media, specially the Facebook to disseminate their hate campaign against the Rohingya community. This might influence ARSA to keep liaison with the global terrorist groups. The determined Buddhist monk leaders and dissemination of their uncompromising reflected message gives wrong signal to the general people. Despite the enormous brutality of government security forces, ^[94] there is hardly any soft corner of the general people’s side for the Rohingya community.^[95] Acceptance of any such wrong doing might create permanent hatred among both the communities which ultimately will create serious communal violence in the long run. Buddhism is such faith that teaches non-violence but the leader like Wirathu is encouraging violence against the Rohingyas.^[96]

Effect of other Insurgent groups in Myanmar There is as many as nine active insurgent groups operating in Myanmar. Beside those there are 15 insurgent groups who are under cease fire with the government security forces and 21 other groups who are inactive.^[97]The insurgent groups take advantage of tough terrain of the border areas of Myanmar and India. Some insurgent groups operate both in Myanmar and the seven sister states of India. Many of the insurgent groups are mutually supported. There are two types of military coalition among those groups, Federal Union Army (FUA) and the Northern Alliance. In Rakhine state, besides ARSA, another insurgent group is very active, the Arakan Army (AA),^[98]which operates against ARSA. So, in Rakhine ARSA needs to face AA, in addition to Myanmar security forces. Despite various odd situations in Myanmar, ARSA might be able to become a strong threat if they are well supported by regional and global terrorist groups. Moreover ARSA has got advantage of motivated activists who all are personally affected.

Normally insurgent groups collect weapons from the illegal businessmen or some party assists them for their own interest. The stand point of ARSA could be utilized by those interested parties for their own advantage. In many cases financial support is needed for the purchase of illegal weapons. That will not be a big issue as Rohingya communities have been utilized for illegal drug trafficking^[99] for a long time.^[100] Myanmar is a heaven of drugs^[101]like yaba or heroine.^[102]Drug dealers might take advantage of utilizing this helpless Rohingya community with less payment. ARSA also might do similar deals with them. If the financial support is ensured, they can purchase weapons from many sources. Among the insurgent groups who are surrendering, many of their activists could sell their weapons to ARSA and surrender to government security forces of India or Myanmar. Similar situations have been occurred many a times in that region.^[103]So, ARSA might become more potent threat for South-Asian region.

ARSA leader Mr. Ata Ullah has strongly denied any connection with any of the regional and global terrorist groups. But analyzing the history of more than half a century, various activities of Rohingya backed mujahedeen, the serious violence of Myanmar security forces, vindictive approach of Rakhine Buddhists and deadly traumatized experience of Rohingya people by Myanmar security forces might compel them to take over the path of terrorism in near future.

Recommendations

The situation in western Myanmar developed on Rohingya crisis might turn into a big security threat for South-Asian region. Besides many obstructions, there are good numbers of options opened for any transnational militant group to take advantage of the situation. After this study and analysis, the following recommendations are framed to formulate a workable counter-terrorism strategy to address a potential terrorist threat:

Continuous intelligence updates about the preparation level of various transnational militant groups, their rise of strength and connection with regional and global terrorist groups, level of new recruitments, weaknesses of the leaders, understanding with other insurgent groups and level of mutual cooperation etc. to be taken into consideration while formulating plan of counter terrorism. The developed countries like U.S. who are already successful in various counter terrorism operations, might provide technical assistance to the countries of South-Asian region, so that proactive measures could be taken during any of such operation.

Before flaring up the terrorist situation difficult to control, some political initiative might be taken. This could be by advising Myanmar government to take some effort to make ease of Rohingya sufferings by taking them back to their country immediately. There is a treaty signed between Bangladesh and Myanmar Government for returning back all Myanmar nationals (Rohingya community) but some of clauses of that treaty which are difficult to comply and unfavorable situation in Myanmar will not encourage the Rohingya people to return back to their country.

Sources and channels of financing of the terrorist groups need to be identified. It could be by transnational organized crimes or by some foreign diaspora or by some interested countries who might have interest in the lands of Rakhine (Arakan) state. It is to be noted with care that terrorist groups might utilize the helpless Rohingya people for drug trafficking. Efforts should be taken to ensure the source and channels of financing impossible or difficult. There might be illegal involvement of the drug businessmen of both Myanmar and Bangladesh. So border security forces and their intelligence branches need to be very active to stop this illegal drug trafficking.

Various regional cooperation organizations like ASEAN or SAARC could be more active to address this kind of situation. In response to a logical demand of nationality and minimum rights of humans cannot be such brutal from the government security forces. If the terrorist group like ARSA does some miscreant activities, necessary action could be taken after necessary investigations. Besides ARSA, there are a good number of insurgent groups who are regularly fighting against the government security forces. Those insurgent groups are being supported by the local general people. So to address the miscreant activities of some terrorist or insurgent groups, whole communities cannot be punished. Now regional cooperation organizations like ASEAN or SAARC might raise their voice about the above aspect and take initiative to ensure safe return of Rohingya community from Bangladesh. Necessary lobbying with UN to pressurize Myanmar and the countries on which Myanmar depends on heavily, like China might take initiative on this issue.

Rohingya population in Bangladesh having experienced with severe trauma could become the easy targets of militant groups. Ensuring of their basic needs including education might keep the level of demotivation within control. UN should take lead role on this issue. Maintenance of more than a million people is a huge affair. There should be short term and long term planning by UN so that this vast working force could be utilized in a productive aspect.

There are many criticisms and sanctions from the UN and other developed countries against the brutal actions of Myanmar government. At the same time, it needs to be remembered that a huge percentage of their nationals live under the poverty line, especially Rakhine- a very undeveloped state where 78 percent people are poor. This is also one of the causes of the communal violence between Muslims and Buddhists. The reduction of poverty level and increase of social interactions might solve many problems. One of the reasons of Myanmar Buddhist nationals’ lack of soft corner for the people of Rohingya despite of inhuman atrocities by the Government security force, is that Buddhist monk leaders could motivate the whole Myanmar Buddhist community against the Rohingya Muslims by describing their past activities against the interest of the country and against Buddhist community. It has created almost permanent barrier between two communities. There might be investment in Rakhine from the developed Muslim countries where both the communities could be employed. Financial security, social development and eradication of hatred on the Muslims by ensuring above, might bring definite change in Rakhine state.

Conclusion

‘Rohingya Crisis’ demands flawless management to support the humanities and at the same time integrated intelligence monitoring to be continued as it might become a reason for the birth of new terrorism in the South-Asian region. ‘Rohingya’ people’s claim as a community to get an identity is a basic need of human being. The matter needs to be considered globally. But by cashing this crisis some terrorist groups might take advantage that will be detrimental for the general people of South-Asian region. The UN and developed countries in the west need to have a unified voice on this issue. Because creation of birth of new terrorism in South-Asia will not only destabilize the demographic balance in the region but also might become a cause of a hub of immense transnational organized crimes that will not be a good news for global interest. The Myanmar Government and many of its citizens especially within the Buddhist community, has created long hatred towards the Rohingya community. So, to address the potential unsecured situation of South- Asian region, international organizations, especially the UN need to take a lead role. Systematic organized dialogues with the Myanmar Government and creating avenues to discuss with the Buddhist leadership might generate productive outcomes. The matter needs to be closely monitored and counter-terrorism units of the neighboring countries need to be technically supported to carry out an integrated effort.

 

 

[1] “Al-Qaeda calls on followers to support Rohingyas”, Dhaka Tribune, September 13, 2017, http://www.dhakatribune.com/world/south-asia/2017/09/13/al-qaeda-rohingya-crisis/ Accessed on January 25, 2018.

[2] “Yemeni al Qaeda leader calls for attacks in support of Myanmar’s Rohingya”, Reuters, September 2, 2017, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-rohingya-alqaeda/yemeni-al-qaeda-leader-calls-for-attacks-in-support-of-myanmars-rohingya-idUSKCN1BD0U8 Accessed on December 20, 2017.

[3] Bertil Lintner, “Mishandling the Rohingya Crisis May Open New Frontier for Terrorism” Yale Global Online, September 26, 2017, https://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/mishandling-rohingya-crisis-may-open-new-frontier-terrorism, Accessed on December 20, 2017.

[4] Faisal Edroos, “ARSA group denies links with al-Qaeda, ISIL and others”, Al-Jazeera, September 14, 2017 http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/09/arsa-group-denies-links-al-qaeda-isil-170914094048024.html Accessed on December 25, 2017.

[5] Nick Cumming, “Rohingya Crisis in Myanmar Is ‘Ethnic Cleansing,’ U.N. Rights Chief Says”, The New York Times, September 11, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/11/world/asia/myanmar-rohingya-ethnic-cleansing.html Accessed on February 12, 2018.

[6] Afrose Jahan Chaity, “Bangladesh is on the right side of history”, Dhaka Tribune, September 13, 2017, http://www.dhakatribune.com/bangladesh/2017/09/13/bangladesh-right-side-history/  Accessed on December 20, 2017.

[7] “Rohingya Refugee Crisis Response”, International Organization for Migration(IOM) Bangladesh: – External Update, 19 – 25 January 2018, https://reliefweb.int/report/bangladesh/iom-bangladesh-rohingya-refugee-crisis-response-external-update-19-25-january-2018, Accessed on February 11, 2018.

[8] K. Yhome, “Rohingya crisis: Southeast Asia’s emerging security concern”, Observer Research Foundation, December 14, 2016, http://www.orfonline.org/expert-speaks/rohingya-crisis-southeast-asias-emerging-security-concern/  Accessed on December 20, 2017.

[9] Lisa Schlein, “UNHCR: Risk of Terrorism ‘Very, Very High’ if Rohingya Crisis Persists”, VOA news, September 27, 2017, https://www.voanews.com/a/unhcr-risk-terrorism-very-high-rohingya-crisis-persists/4046788.html   Accessed on December 20, 2017.

[10] Jaques P.Leider, “Rohingya: the name, the movement and the quest for the identity”. Nation Building in Myanmar, page 204 and 205.

[11] “Myanmar: What sparked latest violence in Rakhine”? BBC News, September 19, 2017, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41082689 Accessed on December 20, 2017.

[12] Michael Safi, “Myanmar treatment of Rohingya looks like ‘textbook ethnic cleansing’, says UN”, The Guardian, September 11, 2017, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/11/un-myanmars-treatment-of-rohingya-textbook-example-of-ethnic-cleansing Accessed on December 20, 2017.

[13] “Situation Report: Rohingya Refugee Crisis”, Inter Sector Coordination Group (ISCG) report, February 11, 2018, https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/system/files/documents/files/180211_weeklyiscg_sitrep_final_0.pdf  Accessed on February 21, 2018.

[14] “Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) declared as Terrorist Group”, State Counsellor Office, Myanmar, 08/27/2017 http://www.statecounsellor.gov.mm/en/node/968 Accessed on February 22, 2018.

[15] Carlos Sardiña Galache, “Inside view of Myanmar’s Rohingya insurgency”, Asia Times, October 31, 2017, http://www.atimes.com/article/inside-view-myanmars-rohingya-insurgency/ Accessed on February 22, 2018.

[16] Faisal Edroos, ARSA: Who are the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army? https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/09/myanmar-arakan-rohingya-salvation-army-170912060700394.htm ,

September 13, 2017.

[17] Ibid.16

[18] David Moore, “Citizenship and Statelessness in Myanmar”, http://thestudio.uiowa.edu/historycorps/exhibits/show/indigenousstruggles1900/rohingya Accessed on January 10, 2018.

[19] “Drug smuggling from Myanmar to Bangladesh sees ‘sharp rise’”, Dhaka Tribune, August 24, 2017, http://www.dhakatribune.com/bangladesh/2017/08/24/drug-smuggling-myanmar-bangladesh-sharp-rise/ Accessed on February 22, 2018.

[20] “Myanmar: Who are the Rohingya”? Al-Jazeera, February 5, 2018, http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2017/08/rohingya-muslims-170831065142812.html Accessed on February 21, 2018.

[21] Aye Chan, “The Development of a Muslim Enclave in Arakan (Rakhine) State of Burma (Myanmar)”, Kanda University of International Studies, SOAS Bulletin of Burma Research, Vol. 3, No. 2, Autumn 2005, ISSN 1479-8484, https://www.soas.ac.uk/sbbr/editions/file64388.pdf  Accessed on January 23, 2018.

[22] “Aung San-Atlee Agreement”, 27 January 1947, https://burmastar1010.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/44172419-aungsan-atlee-agreement.pdf Accessed on January 23, 2018.

[23] David Moore, “Citizenship and Statelessness in Myanmar”,  http://thestudio.uiowa.edu/historycorps/exhibits/show/indigenousstruggles1900/rohingya  Accessed on January 10, 2018.

[24] Aye Chan, “The Development of a Muslim Enclave in Arakan (Rakhine) State of Burma (Myanmar)”, Kanda University of International Studies, SOAS Bulletin of Burma Research, Vol. 3, No. 2, Autumn 2005, ISSN 1479-8484, Page 401, https://www.soas.ac.uk/sbbr/editions/file64388.pdf   Accessed on January 23, 2018.

[25] “Who Killed Aung San”? The Irrawaddy, August, 1997 – Volume 5 No.4/5, http://www2.irrawaddy.com/article.php?art_id=719, Accessed on January 22, 2018.

[26] Aye Chan, “The Development of a Muslim Enclave in Arakan (Rakhine) State of Burma (Myanmar)”, Kanda University of International Studies, SOAS Bulletin of Burma Research, Vol. 3, No. 2, Autumn 2005, ISSN 1479-8484, https://www.soas.ac.uk/sbbr/editions/file64388.pdf  , Accessed on January 23, 2018.

[27] Angsuman Chakraborty, “Complete Background of Rohingya crisis”, September 15, 2017, https://medium.com/@angsuman/history-of-rohingya-insurgency-in-myanmar-formerly-known-as-burma-fe76d1f15f29  , Accessed on January 15, 2018.

[28] Aye Chan, “The Development of a Muslim Enclave in Arakan (Rakhine) State of Burma (Myanmar)”, Kanda University of International Studies, SOAS Bulletin of Burma Research, Vol. 3, No. 2, Autumn 2005, ISSN 1479-8484, https://www.soas.ac.uk/sbbr/editions/file64388.pdf , Accessed on January 23, 2018.

[29] “King Dragon operation in Arakan”, https://www.revolvy.com/main/index.php?s=King+Dragon+operation+in+Arakan&item_type=topic , Accessed on January 15, 2018.

[30] C.R. Abrar, Professor, Department of International Relations, University of Dhaka, and Coordinator, Refugee and Migratory Movements Research Unit, “Repatriation of Rohingya Refugees”,  http://www.burmalibrary.org/docs/Abrar-repatriation.htm , Accessed on February 26, 2018.

[31] Ibid. C.R. Abrar, Professor, Department of International Relations, University of Dhaka, and Coordinator, Refugee and Migratory Movements Research Unit, “Repatriation of Rohingya Refugees”,  http://www.burmalibrary.org/docs/Abrar-repatriation.htm , Accessed on February 26, 2018.

[32] “Why is there communal violence in Myanmar”? BBC News, July 3, 2014, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-18395788 , Accessed on January 15, 2018.

[33] “Myanmar policemen killed in Rakhine border attack”, BBC News, October 9, 2016, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-37601928  Accessed on January 15, 2018.

[34] “Myanmar tensions: Dozens dead in Rakhine militant attack”, BBC News,  http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41046729 , Accessed on January 15, 2018.

[35] “Myanmar: What sparked latest violence in Rakhine”? BBC News, September 19, 2017, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41082689  Accessed on January 15, 2018.

[36] “International Organization for Migration (IOM) Bangladesh: Rohingya Refugee Crisis Response” – External Update, 19 – 25 January 2018, https://reliefweb.int/report/bangladesh/iom-bangladesh-rohingya-refugee-crisis-response-external-update-19-25-january-2018 , Accessed on February 11, 2018.

[37] “Situation Report: Rohingya Refugee Crisis”, Inter Sector Coordination Group (ISCG) report, February 11, 2018, https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/system/files/documents/files/180211_weeklyiscg_sitrep_final_0.pdf  ,   Accessed on February 21, 2018

[38] “International Organization for Migration (IOM) Bangladesh: Rohingya Refugee Crisis Response” – External Update, 19 – 25 January 2018, https://reliefweb.int/report/bangladesh/iom-bangladesh-rohingya-refugee-crisis-response-external-update-19-25-january-2018  , Accessed on February 11, 2018.

[39] “Govt prepares to submit list”, The New Age, December 27, 2017, http://www.newagebd.net/article/31239/govt-prepares-to-submit-list , Accessed on January 15, 2018.

[40] “Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) Declared as Terrorist Group”, Submitted by cwmsco2 on Sun, 08/27/2017 – 23:17, The Republic of the Union of Myanmar, Anti-terrorism Central Committee, Order No. 1/2017

 1379 MY 4 Waxing Day of Tawthalin, (25 August 2017), http://www.statecounsellor.gov.mm/en/node/968

Accessed on January 15, 2018.

[41] “Rohingya insurgency in Western Myanmar, Discussion in ‘Central & South Asia’ started by dray”, February 5, 2017, https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/rohingya-insurgency-in-western-myanmar.476308/  , Accessed on February 27, 2018.

[42] “Rohingya insurgency in Western Myanmar, Discussion in ‘Central & South Asia’ started by dray”, Feb 5, 2017, https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/rohingya-insurgency-in-western-myanmar.476308/ , Accessed on February 27, 2018.

[43] Ibid. “Rohingya insurgency in Western Myanmar, Discussion in ‘Central & South Asia’ started by dray”, Feb 5, 2017, https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/rohingya-insurgency-in-western-myanmar.476308/  , Accessed on February 27, 2018.

[44] Ibid. “Rohingya insurgency in Western Myanmar, Discussion in ‘Central & South Asia’ started by dray”, Feb 5, 2017, https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/rohingya-insurgency-in-western-myanmar.476308/  , Accessed on February 27, 2018.

[45] “Myanmar: A New Muslim Insurgency in Rakhine State”, International Crisis Group, https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-east-asia/myanmar/283-myanmar-new-muslim-insurgency-rakhine-state   , Accessed on December 25, 2017.

[46] “Myanmar’s Rohingya Crisis Enters a Dangerous New Phase”, International Crisis Group, December 7, 2017, https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-east-asia/myanmar/292-myanmars-rohingya-crisis-enters-dangerous-new-phase   , Accessed on December 25, 2017.

[47] “Myanmar policemen killed in Rakhine border attack”, BBC News, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-37601928 , Accessed on January 12, 2018.

[48] “Myanmar’s Rohingya Crisis Enters a Dangerous New Phase”, International Crisis Group, December 7, 2017, https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-east-asia/myanmar/292-myanmars-rohingya-crisis-enters-dangerous-new-phase ,  Accessed on December 25, 2017

[49] “Myanmar’s Rohingya Crisis Enters a Dangerous New Phase”, International Crisis Group, December 7, 2017, https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-east-asia/myanmar/292-myanmars-rohingya-crisis-enters-dangerous-new-phase   , Accessed on December 25, 2017

[50] Ibid. 51

[51] Ibid. 51

[52] Ibid. 51

[53] Ibid. 51

[54] “ARSA Commander Addresses Rohingya diaspora & the world; Warns Myanmar military”, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJoWeV1DlFM  ,Accessed on December 20, 2017.

[55] “Myanmar’s Rohingya Crisis Enters a Dangerous New Phase”, International Crisis Group, December 7, 2017, https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-east-asia/myanmar/292-myanmars-rohingya-crisis-enters-dangerous-new-phase , Accessed on December 25, 2017

[56] Ibid. 57

[57] “Myanmar’s Rohingya Crisis Enters a Dangerous New Phase”, International Crisis Group, December 7, 2017, https://www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-east-asia/myanmar/292-myanmars-rohingya-crisis-enters-dangerous-new-phase  , Accessed on December 25, 2017.

[58] “Man hurt in Mizoram IED blast”, The Telegraph, January 18, 2018, https://www.telegraphindia.com/states/north-east/man-hurt-in-mizoramied-blast-201874  ,Accessed on February 27, 2018.

[59] “Woman killed in IED blast in south Mizoram”, Zoram Observer, January 22, 2018 https://www.zoramobserver.com/mizoram/woman-killed-in-ied-blast-in-south-mizoram/  ,Accessed on February 27, 2018.

[60] Amy Chew,”Al Qaeda’s Rohingya call to arms could revive Jemaah Islamiyah- Security officials”, Channel News Asia, September 14, 2017, https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/al-qaeda-s-rohingya-call-to-arms-could-revive-jemaah-islamiyah-9215004  , Accessed on January 15, 2018.

[61] “The Humanitarian Response Plan”, October 2017, part-2, page-18, https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/2017_HRP_Bangladesh_041017_2.pdf  ,Accessed on January 30, 2018.

[62] Eleanor Albert, “The Rohingya Crisis”, February 9, 2018, https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/rohingya-crisis,  Accessed on February 19, 2018.

[63] Dina Al Raffie, Terrorist Motivations, Chapter 2, Combating Transnational Terrorism, GCMC.

[64] “The 2014 Population and Housing Census of Myanmar, Summary of the Provisional Results,” According to Myanmar’s 2014 Census, Republic of the Union of Myanmar, 2014; United Nations, General Assembly, Committee on the Elimination of Discrimination Against Women, “Concluding Observations on the Combined Second and Third Periodic Reports of Myanmar, Adopted by the Committee at its Forty-Second Session (20 October- 7 November 2008),” January 11, 2013, http://www2.ohchr.org/english/bodies/cedaw/docs/CEDAW.C.MMR.CO.3.Add.4__en.pdf ; and https://asianstudies.georgetown.edu/sites/asianstudies/files/documents/gjaa_3.1_blomquist_0.pdf , Accessed on February 10, 2018.

[65] “’We die or they die’: Rohingya insurgency sparks fresh violence in Myanmar”, The Guardian- September 03, 2017. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/03/we-die-or-they-die-rohingya-insurgency-sparks-fresh-violence-in-myanmar  , Accessed on February 16, 2018.

[66] “Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan threaten Myanmar over Rohingya”, The Express Tribune, July 26, 2012, https://tribune.com.pk/story/413231/taliban-threaten-myanmar-over-rohingya/   , Accessed on February 27, 2018.

[67] Paul Vrieze, “Indonesian Groups Call for Jihad against Burma, to Dismay of Burmese Muslims”, May 3, 2013, https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/burma/indonesian-groups-call-for-jihad-against-burma-to-dismay-of-burmese-muslims.html  , Accessed on February 27, 2018.

[68] “Isis leader calls on Muslims to ‘build Islamic state’”, BBC News, July 1, 2014, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-28116846 ,Accessed on February 27, 2018.

[69] “Pakistani terror group active on Myanmar-Bangladesh border”, Mizzima, July 28, 2015, http://www.mizzima.com/news-domestic-regional/pakistani-terror-group-active-myanmar-bangladesh-border   ,Accessed on February 12, 2018.

[70] “Pakistani Taliban attempts to recruit Rohingyas to kill Myanmar’s rulers”, The Sydney Morning Herald, July 9, 2015, https://www.smh.com.au/world/pakistani-taliban-attempts-to-recruit-rohingyas-to-kill-myanmars-rulers-20150609-ghjjhf.html   ,Accessed on February 27, 2018.

[71] Lucy Draper, “ISIS look to recruit Rohingya Muslims fleeing Myanmar”, Newsweek, February 6, 2015, http://www.newsweek.com/myanmarrohingya-muslimsfleeing-myanmarisis-recruitmentsoutheast-asiarohingya-604185 , Accessed on February 27, 2018.

[72] Bidhayak Das, “Transnational Terrorism and ARSA’s Fight for a ‘Just Cause’”, Date: Feb 17, 2018. https://www.irrawaddy.com/opinion/transnational-terrorism-arsas-fight-just-cause.html  , Accessed on Feb 19, 2018

[73] Paul Millar, “Sizing up the shadowy leader of the Rakhine State insurgency”, Southeast Asia Globe, February 16, 2017, http://sea-globe.com/rakhine-state-insurgency-ata-ullah/ , Accessed on February 27, 2018.

[74] Zachary Abuza, “Myanmar’s Tatmadaw and the Making of the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army”, Publication: Terrorism Monitor, Volume: 15 Issue: 21, November 10, 2017, https://jamestown.org/program/myanmars-tatmadaw-making-arakan-rohingya-salvation-army/ , Accessed on February 19, 2018.

[75] Ibid. 79

[76] Aaron Y. Zelin‏ https://twitter.com/azelin?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor    11:41 AM – 3 Sep 2017

[77] Zachary Abuza, “Myanmar’s Tatmadaw and the Making of the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army”, Publication: Terrorism Monitor Volume: 15 Issue: 21, November 10, 2017, https://jamestown.org/program/myanmars-tatmadaw-making-arakan-rohingya-salvation-army/  , Accessed on February 19, 2018.

[78] Amy Chew, “Al Qaeda’s Rohingya call to arms could revive Jemaah Islamiyah- Security officials”, Channel Asia News, September 14, 2017, https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/al-qaeda-s-rohingya-call-to-arms-could-revive-jemaah-islamiyah-9215004 , Accessed on February 12, 2018.

[79] Imran Vittachi, “Islamic State, Other Islamist Groups Exploit Plight of the Rohingya”.

June 11, 2015,  https://www.benarnews.org/english/news/malaysian/rohingya-06112015174307.html , Accessed on February 19, 2018.

[80] Lucy Draper, “ISIS look to recruit Rohingya Muslims fleeing Myanmar”, Newsweek, , February 6, 2015, http://www.newsweek.com/myanmarrohingya-muslimsfleeing-myanmarisis-recruitmentsoutheast-asiarohingya-604185 ,  Accessed on February 27, 2018

[81] Vera Mironova and Ekaterina Sergatskova, “Will Former ISIS Fighters Help the Rohingya”? Foreign Affairs, September 22, 2017, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/burma-myanmar/2017-09-22/will-former-isis-fighters-help-rohingya , Accessed on February 20, 2018.

[82] Pepe Escobar, “Jihad: ‘The ultimate thermonuclear bomb’”, http://www.atimes.com/ind-pak/CJ10Df01.html    Accessed on January 15, 2018.

[83] Bertil Lintner, “Bangladesh Extremist Islamist Consolidation”, http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/publication/faultlines/volume14/Article1.htm   , Accessed on February 27, 2018.

[84] “Hadiah Ramadhan Al-Mubarak: Foto Eksklusif”, June 17, 2014, https://www.arrahmah.com/2013/07/10/hadiah-ramadhan-al-mubarak-foto-eksklusif-mujahidin-rohingya-tiada-jawaban-kecuali-dengan-jihad/  , Accessed on February 19, 2018.

[85] Farik Zolkepli, “Foreign students among seven IS militants nabbed”, The Star Online , December 20, 2016, https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2016/12/20/foreign-students-among-seven-is-militants-nabbed/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter;%2520http://m.themalaymailonline.com/malaysia/article/lecturers-in-shah-alam-varsity-under-close-watch-for-is-links , Accessed on February 19, 2018.

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