Recent conflict in Arakan and its likely effects in Bangladesh

Parvedge Haider:

Recent conflict between Myanmar Army (Tatmadaw) and Arakan Army (AA) has become a great concern in the South Asian region. Besides ongoing crisis created on Rohingya issue, this new catastrophe might become a new headache for Bangladesh, if it is not addressed appropriately in time. The recent conflict started with an attack on four border police outposts at Kyaung Taung, Nga Myin Taw, Ka Htee La and Kone Myint, in northern Buthidaung Township on 4 January 2019 by a 300 members of Arakan Army. This attack inflicted significant causalities to the police forces by killing 13 of their men and wounding 9 whilst 40 firearms and more than 10,000 rounds of ammunition were looted.

The Tatmadaw retaliated quickly with two helicopter gunships backed by artillery that caused AA to withdraw. The Arakan Army later stated that it had captured nine BGP personnel and five civilians, and three of its fighters were also killed in the attacks. Following the attacks, a high-level meeting on national security was held in the capital Naypyidaw on 7 January 2019 and it was decided that the Defense Ministry will increase troop deployments in the areas that were attacked and if necessary aircrafts will be used to raise the momentum of the operation.

There were prompt concentration of 22nd Light Infantry Division, elements of the 66th and 99th Light Infantry Divisions, and battalions from the Western Command of the Tatmadaw to carry out military offensive against the AA. According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, the belligerent state between two opposing forces compelled approximately 5,000 civilians to leave their homes and to take shelter in the communal areas across the region. There is information that a good number of them crossed the border to reach in the south eastern region areas of Bangladesh territory. There are also strong possibility of some civilian casualties, random detention of ethnic Rakhine villagers, and crisis of food aid and medical relief.

Considering the rapid economic reforms in the Rakhaine State and other geo-political reasons, Myanmar authority is very serious in countering AA.Very recently, the Tatmadaw carried out detail operational plan to face this challenge with strong hand; that includes overall upgrading of the military capabilities, possibilities of parachute assaults, low-level air strikes and aerial resupply drops.

There are as many as ten active insurgent groups, fifteen cease fire groups and twenty two inactive insurgent groups in Myanmar. Out of those groups, Arakan Army (AA) was formed in 10 April 2009 with an ideology of Arakanese nationalism, Separatism and it seems to be very progressive within this short period of time. AA prefers confederate status like that of Wa State, which has a larger share of power in line with the constitution.

It is the main military wing of the United League of Arakan (ULA) and claims itself to be the only revolutionary Army for the people of Arakan or Rakhine. It was originally trained in Kachin State at Kachin Independence Army (KIA) Military Academy and has gathered combat experiences while fighting alongside with Northern Alliance-Burma (NA-B), Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) and Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA), in Shan and Kachin States. The AA also has additional training camps now in Arakan State. According to the report of The Irrawaddy on January 8, 2019, the fighting strength of AA is about 7000. In 2014, their manpower strength was 1500 and by 2015 it reached to 2,500 troops and 10,000 supporters. Surprisingly, within last few years it got a sharp rise to 7000.

The AA considered Arakan to have been an independent nation for thousands of years since 3000 BC which had fallen under colonization due to Bamar monarch Boedaw U Wine and his militants’ invasion in 1784. It rejected the Burman colonial domination and occupation and exercising the ‘right of national self-determination to protect the fatherland of Arakan and its people’, according to its website. Arakan has now become the poorest state of Myanmar where people of are falling into the cycle of inequality, poverty and famine. These great sufferings and tragedies have given the Arakanese new generations no choice but to launch national revolution. This insurgent organization is being led by Major General Twan Mrat Naing. Myanmar government designated it to be as a terrorist organization.

Arakan Army is continuing its movement considering certain specific objectives.

• To struggle for the rights of self-determination for people of Arakan who are now subjected to alien subjugation, domination and exploitation under the Burman colonial rule.
• To provide the safeguarding and promotion of the national identity and cultural heritage of the people of Arakan.
• To serve the “national dignity” and best interests of the people of Arakan.

The concurrent and after effect of this present conflict between AA and Tatmadaw might depend on following considerations:

• The majority of AA is politically, economically and militarily dominated by ethnic Burmese which is a big moral boosting strength but they might have to pay for their over-confidence.
• According to International Crisis Group January 2019 report, the Rakhine youth both inside Rakhine state and beyond are very supportive to AA due mishandling of the state’s politics by the National League for Democracy (NLD) government led by State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi and there is a growing perception that political channels for protest via state politics have been exhausted.
• The dynamic leadership is influencing the youths to join the AA. The sharp rise of fighting strength from 1500 in 2014 to 7000 in 2018 must be very noteworthy.
• There is information of significant rapid growth of cash flows. The rise of cash flow is basically based on huge trade in methamphetamine that moves from northeastern Shan State to Bangladesh and also donations from the wealthy sponsors as well as migrant Rakhine workers.
• AA is well trained in small-unit tactical skills and their real combat experience has been started since 2014.
• AA is equipped with modern small-arms which all are basically acquired both from the Kachin Independent Army (KIA) and United Wa State Army (UWSA). Normally the illegal arms dealers supply through Kachin and Wa State of Myanmar.

There are number of challenges that Arakan Army might confront while involving in this conflict.

• As long as the battle is confined within Rakhine and near surrounding places, it will be difficult for AA to ensure steady replenishment of munitions to the front-line combatants.
• AA seriously depends on KIA and UWSA for its munitions replenishment. But both the groups are supported by the China based illegal arms dealers. The overall situation appears to be changed now. At present China’s priority seems to be Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Rakhine is a very important factor for it. So, China is less likely to have influence or involvement in this conflict. Considering the national economic and political stability both the KIA and UWSA are likely to be in a pressure for keeping them away in providing logistic support for the AA. At the same time the supply lines from KIA bases on the Chinese border across north-central Myanmar and through the rugged hills of Chin state down to Rakhine state are likely to be made difficult. Moreover, China is not taking the recent incidents in Arakan very easily. China embassy in Myanmar has already issued a statement stating that it has strongly condemned the violent attack process in Arakan State and sorrowful for those who had been killed.
• It will be near to impossible for AA to expand its guerrilla force in the south of Rakhine. China is developing a deep sea port at Kyaukphyu in connection to BRI, it is more likely that China will arrange adequate security measures to counter any eventualities.

Now, what might be the options open for AA if the progress of present conflict doesn’t go as per their plan. As the present conflict is happening basically in the Rakhine state and Bangladesh is sharing border with that state, whatever might be the end state of this conflict, the south eastern part of her (Bangladesh) is likely to be disturbed. If AA badly suffer enormous casualties in this conflict, some part of their forces is likely to flee away towards Bangladesh and Northeast Indian Territory. If that happens, Bangladesh might have to face multi-dimensional consequences. It is to be remembered that previously there are incidents where AA and Bangladesh Border Guard (BGB) got involved in clashes. On 27 August 2015, both the sides opened fire near the Boro Modak area of Thanci in the Bandaran district, near the shared Myanmar-Bangladesh border. On 20 August 2015, the Arakan Army clashed with a BGB patrol after ten of their horses had been seized by the BGB earlier that day.

Though during the crisis moment AA is likely to be submissive but they should never be trusted unconditionally. Following clashes between Rohingya people and Burmese security forces in northern Rakhine State in October 2016, the Arakan Army released a press statement, calling the perpetrators (the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army) “savage Bengali Muslim terrorists” and the violence a “rampage of the Bengali Islamic fundamentalist militants in northern Arakan.”

Whatever might be the end result of this conflict is, there is a strong possibility of detrimental effect to the interest of Bangladesh. Despite of Arakan Army’s adequate military preparation and the popular support of Rakhine youths, there is a remote possibility of their clean victory, rather this conflict will cause thousands of Rakhine people to take refuge to the neighboring countries. In that case, the Rakhine Buddhists will prefer more to take entry in Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT) due to availability of a good number of people who all practice near to their similar culture and Buddhist religion.

At some stage of the recent conflict, the armed group members of Arakan Army might need to escape from Rakhine. Moreover, the logistics dilemma will inevitably compel the AA to look towards and across Myanmar’s western borders with India and Bangladesh. Then some of them might try to take illegal entry in Bangladesh. That situation would create a detrimental effect in CHT. It is a known fact that the tribal regional parties maintain four different armed groups and all those groups are using modern automatic weapons, grenades and other military equipment. Arakan Army’s connection with these groups will generate more tension and create more instability in CHT. Even there is a possibility of taking birth of new armed groups in different names.

In the recent past, a new small armed group, Marma Highlanders Progressive Party (MHPP) has come up in Rajestholi, Kaptai area. It is learnt that this new group is taking military support from a Marma tribe based armed group of Myanmar. Illegal entry of the members of AA might cause birth of similar kind of new armed groups or present tribal regional party’s armed groups are like to be more strengthened.

Bangladesh already is taking enormous challenges by giving shelter to more than a million of Rohingya people on humanitarian ground. International communities acknowledge the great contribution of Bangladesh with admiration. But taking more burden and possibility of creating cause of more instability in CHT, might not be an acceptable move. Proactive preparation in all the sectors might be considered to address the possible detrimental eventualities.