On the Brink: Myanmar’s Escalating Conflict and the Looming Threats to Bangladesh

Sarder Ali Haider[1]

Introduction

Myanmar, a nation with a tumultuous history of political instability and military rule, is once again at the center of a deepening crisis that has significant implications both domestically and for its neighbors. Since the military coup in February 2021, which ousted the democratically elected government led by Aung San Suu Kyi, the country has been plunged into a state of turmoil. The coup was met with widespread condemnation and triggered massive protests across the nation, met with brutal force by the junta.

In this already volatile landscape, the emergence of the Brotherhood Alliance, a coalition of rebel groups, has added a new dimension to the conflict. This alliance, comprising the Arakan Army, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, has become a formidable force challenging the military junta’s authority. Formed initially in 2019, their recent resurgence and military operations have marked a significant shift in the dynamics of Myanmar’s ongoing internal conflict.

The Brotherhood Alliance’s growing influence and military successes, including the capture of strategic locations like Kawlin City, signify a notable escalation in the conflict. This escalation is not just a reflection of the increased capabilities and coordination among rebel groups but also highlights the deep-seated ethnic and political divisions within Myanmar. The military junta’s response to this challenge has been a combination of military action and attempts at political maneuvering, including sporadic peace talks and ceasefires, which have largely failed to bring stability.

The situation in Myanmar is further complicated by the involvement of external actors. China, with its significant investments in the region, particularly under the Belt and Road Initiative, has expressed concerns about the stability of its projects and the safety of Chinese nationals. The conflict directly impacts China’s strategic interests, including the proposed China-Myanmar Economic Corridor. Beijing’s role in the region, balancing between its support for the central government and the rebels, adds layers of geopolitical complexity to the situation.

Moreover, the conflict in Myanmar poses a significant threat to regional stability, especially for neighboring countries like Bangladesh and India. Bangladesh, already hosting over a million Rohingya refugees following the 2017 military crackdown in Rakhine State, faces the prospect of further refugee inflows amidst the escalating violence. India, sharing a long border with Myanmar, is concerned about the spillover of insurgency and its impact on internal security, particularly in its northeastern states.

As the military junta struggles to maintain control and the rebel alliances gain ground, Myanmar stands at a critical juncture. The internal conflict, fueled by decades of ethnic strife and political suppression, now threatens to escalate into a broader regional crisis. The international community watches with concern as the situation unfolds, posing significant challenges to peace, stability, and security in Southeast Asia.

“Brotherhood Alliance” and the Widespread Rebellion

The “Brotherhood Alliance” in Myanmar represents a significant development in the country’s long-standing conflict. This coalition of rebel groups, formed in June 2019, unites three major ethnic armed organizations: the Arakan Army (AA), the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA). The formation of this alliance marks a pivotal shift in the nature of Myanmar’s internal strife, signaling a more coordinated and formidable opposition to the military junta.

Origins and Formation

The Brotherhood Alliance was formed against a backdrop of increasing ethnic tensions and a long history of conflict in Myanmar. Each member group of the alliance represents a different ethnic minority, with specific grievances and objectives:

1. The Arakan Army, primarily active in Rakhine State, seeks greater autonomy for the Rakhine people.
2. The MNDAA represents the Kokang people in northern Myanmar.
3. The TNLA fights for the rights of the Ta’ang (or Palaung) people in the northern Shan State.

Escalation Post-2021 Coup

The military coup of February 2021, which overthrew the elected government, added fuel to the existing unrest and became a catalyst for the intensification of the Brotherhood Alliance’s activities. Initially silent about the coup, the Alliance soon reaffirmed its existence and opposition to the military regime. The coup’s aftermath saw the Alliance stepping up its military operations, demonstrating increased coordination and strategic planning.

Widespread Rebellion and Military Campaigns

The Alliance’s military campaigns have been significant and impactful. Notably, their Operation 1027, launched in October 2023, was a major offensive against the junta in northern Shan State. This operation, among others, showcased the Alliance’s growing military capabilities and its ability to seize and control significant territories.

The Alliance’s activities have gone beyond mere military engagement. They have managed to exercise de facto control in various regions, providing governance and asserting their authority in the absence of a functional state apparatus.

Strategic Significance and Implications

The Brotherhood Alliance’s emergence as a cohesive and effective military entity has profound implications. It challenges the military junta’s grip on power and questions the central government’s ability to govern the diverse ethnic landscapes of Myanmar. The Alliance’s operations have had a significant impact on the region’s political and security dynamics. Their actions have not only weakened the military junta’s control but also raised questions about the future integrity of the state, with the potential division of Myanmar into different parts becoming a tangible possibility. The formation and actions of the Brotherhood Alliance are thus central to understanding the current dynamics of conflict in Myanmar. Their influence extends beyond their immediate territories, affecting the regional geopolitical landscape and posing new challenges for neighboring countries and international actors concerned with peace and stability in Southeast Asia.

The emergence of the Brotherhood Alliance in Myanmar is a significant development in the nation’s long history of ethnic insurgency. This alliance, along with other insurgent groups, plays a crucial role in the current political and military landscape.

Formation of the Brotherhood Alliance

The Brotherhood Alliance was formed in June 2019, comprising three major ethnic armed organizations: the Arakan Army (AA), the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA).

This alliance signifies a strategic collaboration among different ethnic groups, each with their own long-standing grievances and objectives against the Myanmar state.

Arakan Army (AA)

The AA, primarily active in Rakhine State, emerged as a significant force fighting for greater autonomy and rights for the Rakhine people. The AA has been involved in intense conflicts with the Tatmadaw, significantly impacting the regional dynamics, particularly in Rakhine State.

Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA)

The MNDAA represents the Kokang people, a Chinese-speaking ethnic group in northern Shan State. The group has been engaged in sporadic but often intense conflicts with the Myanmar military, seeking greater autonomy and recognition.

Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA)

The TNLA fights for the rights of the Ta’ang (or Palaung) people in the northern Shan State. Formed relatively recently in 2009, the TNLA has been involved in conflicts not only with the Myanmar military but also with other ethnic armed groups over territorial control and influence.

Other Notable Insurgent Groups

Besides the Brotherhood Alliance, Myanmar has several other significant insurgent groups. The Kachin Independence Army (KIA), active in Kachin and northern Shan States, is one of the largest and most influential.

The Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) represents the Karen people and has been involved in one of the world’s longest-running civil conflicts.

The United Wa State Army (UWSA), operating primarily in the Wa Special Region in Shan State, is another powerful group, often considered the most militarily potent ethnic armed organization in Myanmar.

Strategic Significance of These Groups

The formation of the Brotherhood Alliance and the activities of other insurgent groups represent a significant challenge to the central authority of the Myanmar military junta.

These groups have managed to establish control over significant territories and have been involved in heavy fighting with the Tatmadaw, affecting the stability and security of the entire region.

The alliances and conflicts among these groups also reflect the complex interplay of ethnic politics in Myanmar. They have at times worked together against the central military and at other times have fought amongst themselves for territorial control and influence.

Implications for Peace and Conflict

The presence and activities of these armed groups are central to the ongoing conflict dynamics in Myanmar. Any sustainable solution to the country’s political and ethnic conflicts will need to address the demands and grievances of these groups.

Peace initiatives, including the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA), have had limited success, partly due to the complex nature of these groups and their varying objectives and alliances.

The emergence of the Brotherhood Alliance and the activities of other insurgent groups are a testament to Myanmar’s complex ethnic and political challenges. These groups not only signify the enduring nature of ethnic conflicts in Myanmar but also represent a significant factor in the country’s ongoing struggle for peace, democracy, and national unity.

Current Situation in Myanmar: The Uprisings and Their Spread

The current situation in Myanmar is characterized by widespread uprisings and conflicts, marked by the significant role of the Brotherhood Alliance and other insurgent groups. These uprisings, which have escalated notably since the military coup in February 2021, are spreading across various regions of Myanmar, creating a multifaceted crisis.

Post-Coup Escalation

The military coup, which led to the ousting of the democratically elected government, was a critical turning point. It sparked nationwide protests and civil disobedience movements, leading to a violent crackdown by the military.

The response to the coup galvanized not only the general populace but also various ethnic armed organizations, leading to an escalation in armed resistance.

Brotherhood Alliance’s Operations

The Brotherhood Alliance, consisting of the Arakan Army, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, intensified its military operations following the coup.

Significant operations, such as Operation 1027 in October 2023, showcased their increasing capability to launch coordinated attacks. This operation, targeting the junta in northern Shan state, involved capturing key towns and inflicting substantial losses on the military.

The Alliance’s activities have not been limited to traditional combat. They have also been involved in governing the territories under their control, challenging the junta’s authority in these regions.

Spread Across Myanmar

The unrest and conflicts have spread beyond the areas traditionally associated with ethnic armed groups. Urban centers, which were once relatively insulated from such conflicts, have seen a surge in protests and acts of defiance against the military regime.

In addition to the Brotherhood Alliance, numerous other groups and militias, often community-based, have emerged. These include the People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) in various regions, which have taken up arms against the military regime.

Increased Violence and Instability

Myanmar has witnessed increasing violence and instability, with frequent clashes between the military and various insurgent groups. There have been reports of significant casualties, both among combatants and civilians.

The military’s response has been characterized by intense crackdowns, air strikes, and allegations of human rights violations, contributing to a growing humanitarian crisis.

Impact on Civilians

The conflict has had a devastating impact on civilians, with reports of mass displacements, human rights abuses, and a deteriorating humanitarian situation. Access to basic necessities like healthcare, food, and education has been severely affected in conflict zones.

Regional Differences

The nature and intensity of the uprisings vary across different regions. In some areas, ethnic armed groups have a dominant presence, while in others, newly formed militias and civilian groups are more active.

The conflict in Rakhine State, involving the Arakan Army, has its own dynamics, distinct from the conflicts in Shan and Kachin States or the urban resistance seen in cities like Yangon and Mandalay.

International and Regional Reactions

The crisis in Myanmar has drawn international attention and condemnation, particularly regarding the military’s actions against civilians and political leaders. However, international responses have been varied and, at times, limited in terms of concrete action.

The crisis also poses a challenge for regional stability, with neighboring countries like Thailand, India, and particularly Bangladesh, directly affected by the conflict, especially in terms of refugee flows and border security.

The current situation in Myanmar is complex and rapidly evolving, with widespread uprisings against the military junta. The involvement of various ethnic armed groups, especially the Brotherhood Alliance, along with civilian resistance movements, has led to a multifaceted conflict, deeply impacting the socio-political fabric of the country and posing significant challenges for peace and stability in the region.

The Role and Strategies of Insurgent Groups

Insurgent Group Dynamics

The insurgent groups in Myanmar, including the Brotherhood Alliance, have adopted multifaceted strategies to challenge the military junta. Their approaches vary from armed rebellion to governance in areas under their control.

The ethnic armed organizations have historical roots and are primarily driven by the desire for autonomy, rights, and recognition for their respective ethnic groups.

Military Strategies

Militarily, these groups engage in guerrilla warfare, ambushes, and capturing strategic locations. Operation 1027 by the Brotherhood Alliance is an example of a coordinated offensive against the junta, indicating a high level of planning and execution.

Some groups also engage in conventional warfare tactics, holding and governing significant swathes of territory.

Economic Aspects and Illegal Drug Production

Many insurgent groups, particularly in regions like the Golden Triangle (bordering Thailand, Laos, and China), are involved in the lucrative illegal drug trade, including the production and trafficking of opium and methamphetamine. This trade provides substantial funding for their military operations.

Control of resource-rich areas also plays a key role in the insurgents’ strategies, as these resources provide financial sustenance.

Military Junta’s Response

Military Crackdowns

The military junta has responded with force, conducting extensive military operations against insurgent groups and civilian protestors. This includes air strikes, artillery barrages, and ground offensives.

The junta has also been accused of human rights violations, including extrajudicial killings, arbitrary arrests, and torture.

Governance and Control Measures

Beyond military action, the junta has attempted to establish control through governance measures, including appointing local administrators and trying to provide public services in conflict-affected areas.

Attempts at peace negotiations and ceasefires have been made, though with limited success, often breaking down and leading to renewed violence.

Efficacy of Control Measures

The efficacy of the junta’s control measures has been mixed. While they retain control over major cities and central administrative regions, their grip on ethnic minority areas and border regions is less stable.

The widespread resistance and continued strength of insurgent groups suggest that the junta’s measures have not been entirely successful in suppressing opposition.

Implications for Bangladesh

Refugee Influx

The primary implication for Bangladesh is the potential for a further influx of refugees, particularly if violence escalates in Rakhine State and other areas bordering Bangladesh.

Bangladesh already hosts a significant number of Rohingya refugees, and additional influxes could strain resources and compound humanitarian challenges.

Security Concerns

The conflict in Myanmar could lead to security issues along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border, including the possibility of cross-border incursions by insurgent groups or Myanmar military operations.

There is also a risk of the conflict in Myanmar spilling over into the Chittagong Hill Tracts, an area with its own history of insurgency and ethnic tensions.

Economic and Social Impact

An increased refugee population could have significant economic and social impacts on Bangladesh, including pressure on public services, local economies, and social cohesion.

The conflict in Myanmar could also affect cross-border trade and economic interactions between the two countries.

Regional Stability and Diplomacy

Bangladesh may face diplomatic challenges in balancing its response to the crisis, including humanitarian support for refugees, maintaining bilateral relations with Myanmar, and engaging with international actors on the crisis.

The situation in Myanmar is a concern for regional stability, and Bangladesh may seek to play a role in regional diplomatic efforts to address the crisis. The insurgent groups in Myanmar have developed complex strategies to challenge the military junta, including involvement in illegal economic activities like drug production. The junta’s response, while forceful, has not fully quelled the resistance. The conflict has significant implications for Bangladesh, particularly concerning refugee flows, border security, and broader regional stability.

Analysis of the Escalating Conflict in Myanmar and Its Effects on Bangladesh

The escalating conflict in Myanmar, especially with the rising activities of insurgent groups like the Brotherhood Alliance, poses significant challenges for Bangladesh. These challenges span across humanitarian, economic, social, and security domains.

Potential for Increased Refugee Inflows

The primary concern for Bangladesh is the potential surge in refugee inflows. Increased military operations and violence in Myanmar, particularly in regions close to the Bangladesh border like Rakhine State, could lead to a new wave of refugees seeking safety.

Given the existing Rohingya crisis, with over a million refugees already in camps in Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh faces the risk of severe overcrowding and resource strain. The infrastructure and services in these areas are already stretched thin, and additional influxes could exacerbate this situation.

Humanitarian Challenges

Dealing with a new influx of refugees will intensify the humanitarian challenges for Bangladesh. Providing adequate shelter, food, medical care, and sanitation facilities would require significant resources and international support.

The situation could also lead to public health challenges, including the spread of communicable diseases, which could be compounded by limited access to healthcare services.

Economic Impact

Hosting a large refugee population is economically burdensome. It involves substantial costs in terms of providing basic necessities, infrastructure, and services.

Local communities in the border areas might face economic challenges due to competition for jobs, resources, and services. The presence of refugees can also impact local markets and livelihoods.

Social and Community Tensions

The integration of a large number of refugees into local communities can lead to social tensions. Issues such as competition for resources, cultural differences, and language barriers can strain community relations.

There is also the concern of the long-term social impact, particularly if refugees remain in Bangladesh for an extended period without proper integration strategies.

Security Concerns

The conflict in Myanmar could lead to security issues for Bangladesh. This includes the risk of cross-border incursions by armed groups and the potential for the conflict to spill over into Bangladeshi territory.

There are concerns about the potential radicalization within refugee camps and the possibility of these areas being used as recruitment grounds by militant groups.

Border Management and Diplomatic Challenges

Managing the long and porous border with Myanmar presents a significant challenge, requiring resources and effective coordination among various agencies.

Diplomatically, Bangladesh needs to navigate a complex landscape, balancing its humanitarian response to refugees, maintaining bilateral relations with Myanmar, and engaging with international actors for support and conflict resolution.

Regional Stability

The conflict in Myanmar and its implications for Bangladesh can have broader repercussions for regional stability in South Asia. It underscores the need for a coordinated regional approach to address both the root causes of the conflict and the refugee crisis.

The escalating conflict in Myanmar could significantly impact Bangladesh, primarily through the potential for increased refugee inflows, which would exacerbate existing humanitarian, economic, social, and security challenges. The situation calls for proactive planning, international support, and regional cooperation to effectively manage the potential consequences.

Regional Dynamics and International Response to Myanmar’s Situation

The complex situation in Myanmar has elicited varied reactions from the regional and international community, with different entities playing distinct roles in addressing the crisis.

Regional Reaction

Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN): ASEAN, the regional bloc to which Myanmar belongs, has been at the forefront of regional efforts to address the crisis. However, ASEAN’s response has been criticized for being slow and ineffective due to its principle of non-interference and consensus-based decision-making. Despite this, ASEAN has attempted to mediate the situation, calling for dialogue, cessation of violence, and humanitarian assistance.

Neighboring Countries: Countries sharing borders with Myanmar, such as Thailand, India, China, and Bangladesh, have their own unique responses, often influenced by their national interests, border security concerns, and the potential influx of refugees. China, in particular, has a strategic interest in Myanmar and has been involved in both public diplomatic efforts and behind-the-scenes negotiations.

India and Thailand: Both have maintained a cautious approach, balancing their diplomatic and security interests. India, for instance, has to manage its long-standing relationship with Myanmar’s military while also addressing security concerns along its northeastern border.

International Community’s Stance and Interventions

Sanctions and Condemnations: Western countries, notably the United States and members of the European Union, have condemned the military coup and human rights violations in Myanmar. They have imposed sanctions on military leaders and entities associated with the junta.

Diplomatic Efforts: There have been various diplomatic efforts, including resolutions and discussions at the United Nations, aimed at putting pressure on the Myanmar military to restore democracy and respect human rights.

Support for Democracy Movements: Some international actors have expressed support for Myanmar’s pro-democracy movements and the National Unity Government (NUG), formed by ousted lawmakers and anti-coup activists.

Role of Global Organizations and Humanitarian Aid

United Nations and Specialized Agencies: The UN and its agencies, such as UNHCR and UNICEF, are actively involved in providing humanitarian aid, especially to the displaced populations within Myanmar and refugees in neighboring countries. They have also called for unhindered humanitarian access to affected regions.

Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs): International and local NGOs are crucial in delivering aid and services to affected populations. They work in areas such as healthcare, food security, shelter, and education, often under challenging conditions.

Humanitarian Funding and Appeals: There have been several international appeals for funding to support the humanitarian response in Myanmar and for refugees in neighboring countries. The response to these appeals, however, has often been insufficient to meet the growing needs.

Challenges in International Response

The international response to the crisis in Myanmar faces several challenges, including geopolitical considerations, the complexity of the situation on the ground, and the Myanmar military’s resistance to external pressure.

There is also the challenge of ensuring that aid reaches those in need, given the restrictions and conflict conditions in various parts of Myanmar.

The regional and international response to the situation in Myanmar involves a mix of diplomatic efforts, sanctions, humanitarian aid, and support for democratic forces. The effectiveness of these efforts is influenced by geopolitical dynamics, the principles of regional entities like ASEAN, and the complex humanitarian landscape within Myanmar. The situation requires a coordinated and sustained international approach to address both the immediate humanitarian needs and the longer-term political resolution.

Potential Scenarios and Projections for Myanmar

The future of Myanmar, given the current complexity of its internal conflict and the varying interests of regional and international actors, can unfold in several ways. Each potential scenario carries implications for regional stability and for Bangladesh in particular.

Scenario 1: Prolonged Conflict and Fragmentation

In this scenario, the conflict continues without a clear resolution, leading to further fragmentation of the country. The insurgent groups, including the Brotherhood Alliance, might strengthen their control over certain regions, challenging the central authority of the junta.

Implications: This could lead to a long-term humanitarian crisis, continued instability, and possibly the emergence of Myanmar as a patchwork of semi-autonomous regions. The risk of spillover effects into neighboring countries, including refugee flows into Bangladesh, would be high.

Scenario 2: Military Retains Control

Another possibility is that the military junta manages to quell the uprisings and reassert control over the country, possibly through intensified military campaigns and political maneuvers.

Implications: While this might lead to temporary stability, the underlying issues of ethnic tensions and demands for autonomy would likely remain unresolved. This scenario could lead to continued human rights abuses and potential international isolation, affecting regional dynamics.

Scenario 3: Democratic Transition and National Reconciliation

A more optimistic but challenging scenario involves a transition to democratic governance, possibly through international mediation and internal negotiations, leading to a power-sharing arrangement and national reconciliation.

Implications: This would be the most favorable outcome for regional stability and could lead to a reduction in refugee flows. However, the path to such a transition is fraught with significant challenges.

Implications for Regional Stability and Bangladesh

For Regional Stability

Continued conflict in Myanmar could destabilize the region, affecting trade, security, and political relations. The involvement of major powers like China and India adds to the geopolitical complexity.

A stable and democratic Myanmar, on the other hand, could contribute positively to regional integration and cooperation.

For Bangladesh

Any scenario that leads to increased violence or instability in Myanmar directly impacts Bangladesh through refugee inflows and border security challenges.

Continued conflict could strain Bangladesh’s resources and exacerbate social and economic issues in the border regions.

Potential Strategies and Recommended Policies for Bangladesh

1. Enhanced Border Management:
2. Strengthening border security to manage refugee flows and prevent illegal cross-border activities.
3. Implementing efficient border management systems to monitor and regulate movements.
4. Diplomatic Engagement:
5. Engaging actively in regional platforms like SAARC and BIMSTEC and international forums to advocate for a resolution to the Myanmar crisis.
6. Working with ASEAN and leveraging its influence to push for constructive engagement in Myanmar.
7. International Cooperation and Aid Management:
8. Collaborating with international organizations and donor countries to ensure adequate funding and support for refugee management.
9. Enhancing partnerships for humanitarian aid delivery and infrastructure development in refugee-hosting areas.
10. Internal Security Measures:
11. Implementing measures to ensure internal security and social harmony within Bangladesh, especially in communities hosting refugees.
12. Addressing issues of radicalization and ensuring the protection of refugee rights.
13. Economic and Social Integration Policies:
14. Developing policies for the economic and social integration of refugees, should long-term stay become a necessity.
15. Engaging the international community in sustainable solutions for refugees, including the possibility of resettlement in third countries.

The potential scenarios for Myanmar’s future are varied and carry distinct implications for regional stability and for Bangladesh. Proactive strategies and policies are essential for Bangladesh to mitigate the adverse impacts of the ongoing crisis in Myanmar, balancing humanitarian responsibilities with national security and socio-economic stability.

Conclusion

The political and security situation in Myanmar has reached a critical juncture, marked by the military coup of 2021 and the subsequent emergence of formidable insurgent groups like the Brotherhood Alliance. This situation has led to widespread uprisings and a deepening humanitarian crisis.

The insurgent groups, leveraging both military and economic strategies, including involvement in illegal drug production, present a significant challenge to the military junta’s authority. The junta’s response, characterized by military crackdowns and governance measures, has been met with limited success and international condemnation.

The escalating conflict in Myanmar poses serious implications for regional stability, particularly for neighboring countries like Bangladesh. The potential for increased refugee inflows, along with economic, social, and security challenges, are immediate concerns for Bangladesh.

The complex dynamics of Myanmar’s situation necessitate a concerted regional and international response. The roles of ASEAN, neighboring countries, and global organizations are crucial in mediating the conflict and providing humanitarian aid.

Effective international cooperation is needed to pressure the junta towards a peaceful resolution, support democratic movements, and ensure the protection of human rights in Myanmar.

The future of Myanmar remains uncertain, with scenarios ranging from prolonged conflict and fragmentation to possible democratic transition and national reconciliation. Each scenario has distinct implications for the country and the region.

Neighboring countries, particularly Bangladesh, play an imperative role in this context. Bangladesh’s response to the refugee crisis, border management, and diplomatic engagement are pivotal in shaping the regional approach to the Myanmar crisis.

Bangladesh’s strategies and policies should aim at balancing humanitarian responsibilities with national security and socio-economic stability, while actively participating in international efforts to find a sustainable solution to the crisis in Myanmar.

The resolution of the crisis in Myanmar is not just a matter of restoring peace within its borders; it is integral to the stability and prosperity of the entire region. The international community, along with neighboring countries like Bangladesh, must work together to address both the immediate humanitarian needs and the longer-term political challenges. The future of Myanmar, therefore, is not only a concern for its citizens but a matter of regional and international importance.

[1] PhD Researcher, Bangladesh University of Professionals, Mirpur Cantonment, Dhaka Bangladesh.