Concerns of Bangladesh: Impact of Recent Uprising Tensions in Myanmar on Northeast Indian Insurgencies
Parvedge Haider
Maximum of the Northeast Indian insurgent and secessionist groups are directly and indirectly connected with the insurgent groups of Myanmar since their inceptions[1]. Although the intelligence agencies and security forces of India are quite successful so far in addressing the tensions those had been prevailing during last few decades of previous century, still new security situations are being generated in different places of Northeast India, specially in Nagaland, Assam, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura. The insurgent and secessionist groups of Northeast India take advantage of difficult terrain of the bordering areas and get shelter in Myanmar, specially in the Sagaing region[2]. In the recent past, India and Myanmar had been countering the insurgents with mutual cooperation and good understanding. However, despite this cooperation, over 2000-3000 Naga, Manipuri, and Assamese insurgents utilized Myanmar territory as a base for their armed activities. As the last election result of Myanmar was not in favor of the military junta, there was a coup in February 2021; this newly developed situation has generated a security concern for the neighboring states of Northeast India. Besides this aspect, the overall expanded situation needs to be observed by the concern intelligence and security agencies of Bangladesh, specially in Chittagong Hill Tracts.
India’s Look East policy[3] is an effort to promote extensive economic and strategic relations with the nations of Southeast Asia to strengthen its standing as a regional power and a counterbalance to the strategic influence of the People’s Republic of China. In doing so, the mutual cooperation between India and Myanmar was initiated in 1993. Intending to extend its influence in Southeast Asia, and also deter Myanmar from harboring the Northeast Indian insurgents, India had been cooperating the military junta despite many challenges and criticisms. On the other hand, the military junta of Myanmar conjoined the security forces of India possibly with an intension of keeping another avenue open besides China. All these initiatives made India, Myanmar’s 4th largest trading partner after Thailand, China and Singapore, and second largest export market after Thailand, absorbing 25 percent of its total exports. India is also the seventh most important source of Myanmar’s imports. However, the present situational development as a follow up of military coup has created questions of this mutual cooperation between the two countries and some kind of confusion has been generated regarding Myanmar’s intentions to cooperate against the Northeast Indian insurgencies. In the recent past, the insurgent leader Paresh Baruah has been given shelter in an unknown place and there are reports of new supply of arms to his organization, the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA-I). At the same time, Myanmar’s ethnic insurgent group Kachin Independence Army (KIA), Arakan Army (AA), Ta-ang National Liberation Army etc seem to be in a preparation and watchful mood. It might be noted that normally the supply of arms to the insurgents of Myanmar and Northeast India occurs through The United Wa State Army (UWSA)[4].
It has been reported that Myanmar military commanders posted along the borders of northeast India are using insurgents to attack the refugees fleeing after the February 1 coup[5]. The local Tatmadaw commanders have struck a deal with Manipuri insurgent groups, UNLF and PLA, to carry out such attacks. This may not be a national policy but a tactical move by the local commanders desperate to stop refugee flow into India. According to the possible deal, UNLF and PLA factions with bases in Myanmar’s Sagaing province will attack the refugee stragglers walking towards the Indian border and force them to return to their villages. Regardless of this increasing intention for cooperation, the Tatmadaw is experiencing an ability crisis. At present, they are countering challenging situation almost in every corner of the country, Myanmar; so the overall situation is creating complications and difficulties for them to evict the insurgents of Northeast India.
Considering this aspect, although India has been assisting Myanmar with intelligence, satellite images, and defence equipment, Tatmadaw hardly could do best use of those; still the presence of Myanmar security forces in the bordering regions is not satisfactory. Therefore, despite various military operations, the insurgents continue to operate or re-establish in the bordering regions. Moreover, as most of these insurgent groups are located in Northeast Indian bordering areas, they have also developed close cooperation amongst them. Some of the Manipuri insurgent organizations in Myanmar had formed a coalition called Coordination Committee, which later started working closely with another alliance of Indian insurgents in Myanmar, called the United National Liberation Front of Western South-East Asia (ULFWSA). This alliance includes several organizations such as ULFA, NSCN (K), NDFB etc. Most of the bases of insurgent and secessionist groups are close to the NSCN (K) headquarters in Sagaing. It might be noted that the NSCN (K) governs some of the small places of Naga region in Myanmar those have been allowed by Tatmadaw, following a deal with the Myanmar government in 2012[6].
In 2019, during the series of offensives of Myanmar security forces against the Northeast Indian insurgents including the NSCN (K), the majority of the insurgents moved to other bases that were beyond the Tatmadaw’s priorities and operational capabilities. Several Manipuri rebels moved to other camps and towns located in the South of Sagaing, Chin and Rakhine states, while ULFA-I and NDFB cadres relocated to the North and North East of Sagaing with the help of NSCN-K.
It has been learnt from the sources that the ethnic insurgents of Myanmar are trying to regain their strength. They are looking for illegal taxes to recruit and support anti-coup protestors, while also funding their increased offensives to maximize power and deter Tatmadaw’s stepped-up offences. Out of these organizations, the KIA has adopted an intense offensive, while the AA has continued to criticize and attack the army with its allies, despite a temporary ceasefire. These two organizations had a long history of training, cooperating, accommodating, and selling arms to Northeast Indian insurgents. It has been reported that the KIA arranged training and provided shelter to several Manipuri and ULFA insurgents in the past. Similarly, AA has been cooperating with the Manipuri organizations of UNLF and PREPAK by allowing them to establish camps in Rakhine and Chin states, in return of logistic supports. It has also been reported that KIA and AA acted as a media of the arms supplies for several Northeast Indian states’ insurgents. With the prevalent cooperation as such, these organizations might soon start supplementing each other’s needs. The Northeast Indian insurgents might be able to generate illegal taxes for Myanmar insurgents by providing them funds and new arms and drug trafficking routes, in return of being sheltered and letting them carry out operations against the security forces of the respective countries.
Concerns of Bangladesh
Bangladesh is already facing challenges due to millions of Rohingya influx. Among those at least 200,000 of the Rohingyas are young, unemployed and easy prey to radicalization. There are definitely security threats posed by such a large number of traumatized people; these people might be wrongly handled by the vested corners against the interest of Bangladesh.
Chittagong Hill Tracts(CHT) is located right beside Mizoram and Tripura of Northeast India. It also shares the border with the Rakhine state of Myanmar. Although a peace accord has been signed between the Government of Bangladesh and PCJSS, still there are diversified tensions in CHT; all four tribal regional parties are maintaining armed groups mostly to counter inter-party rivalries, area domination and illegal tax collections. According to the sources, the tribal regional party armed groups in CHT are well connected with the insurgent groups of Northeast India. In the recent past the security forces of Mizoram and Tripura arrested a good number of insurgents and recovered huge number of modern weapons. According to the sources, tribal regional party armed groups of CHT have collected or trying to collect a good number of illegal arms through various secessionist groups of Northeast Indian states and smugglers. So, the security situation connected to the secessionist groups of Northeast Indian states are always a concern for Bangladesh. In the recent years, the demand of sophisticated arms has been increased among the tribal regional political parties of CHT. Different type of modern automatic weapons are being smuggled from Myanmar and India through the porous borders along CHT. Concern intelligence agencies and the security forces deployed in CHT might monitor the relevant aspects of insurgencies being developed in Myanmar and Northeast Indian states with a view act proactively.
[1] Madhu Gurung and Ramtanu Maitra, Insurgent groups in Northeast India, https://larouchepub.com/other/1995/2241_ne_india_groups.html, accessed on May 29, 2021.
[2] Sagaing Region is an administrative region of Myanmar, located in the north-western part of the country. It was the capital of Sagaing Kingdom (1315-1364), one of the minor kingdoms that rose up after the fall of Pagan dynasty, where one of Thihathu’s sons, Athinkhaya, established himself.
[3] Thongkholal Haokip, India’s Look East Policy: Its Evolution and Approach, https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0971523113513368, accessed on May 29, 2021.
[4] United Wa State Army (UWSA), https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/para/wa.htm, accessed on May 29, 2021.
[5] Myanmar military using NE rebels to attack refugees, https://www.thesangaiexpress.com/Encyc/2021/4/17/Kolkata-Apr-17-Myanmar-military-comman-ders-posted-along-the-borders-of-Northeast-India-are-using.html, accessed on May 29, 2021.
[6] India, Myanmar joint Ops may deal blow to NSCN (K), others, https://www.thesangaiexpress.com/Encyc/2019/5/24/GUWAHATI-May-23-Deftly-sidestepping-a-ceasefire-agreement-with-the-NSCN-Khaplang-faction-signed-in-April-2012-the-Myanmar-Army-officially-known-as-the-Tatmadaw-in-close-tandem-with-the-India.html, accessed on May 30, 2021.